{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbd725af-9450-4c26-ad83-264642d4acc7", "symbol": "NBJP", "name": "NEUBERGER JAPAN EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.017, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.589, "architecture_energy": 23.608, "architecture_maturity": 65.005, "architecture_confidence": 79.441, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.57, "rotation_up": 23.28, "upward_expansion": 53.91, "deceleration": 91.06, "rotation_down": 38.84, "downward_expansion": 22.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.831347, 36.180685, 36.022472, 35.475315 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.6968, "trend_reference": 34.838363, "distance_from_trend": 0.053345, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.003616, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.158974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08098, "excess_performance": -0.044644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053345, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056819, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265249, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00159, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057486, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08098, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.32521, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29531, "relative_activity": 0.390012, "balance": 0.32521, "dry_up": 1.07541, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040749, "annualized_volatility": 0.263949, "from_high_reference": -0.057849, "from_low_reference": 0.307065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.838363, "fair_value_reference": 29.003616, "structural_low": 31.0759, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.073262, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005357, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105087, "worst_return": 0.041438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.23388, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.079581, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23388, "worst_return": 0.23388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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61.678448, "activity_lines": [ 37.1639, 36.828436, 35.81011, 35.201896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.8829, "volume": 33661, "typical_volume": 73135.45, "trend": 34.4129, "fair_value": 28.794316, "relative_strength": -0.643176, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.635688, "energy": 25.149675, "activity_lines": [ 36.411767, 36.51962, 35.80437, 35.240968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.3807, "volume": 23368, "typical_volume": 69630.2, "trend": 34.562503, "fair_value": 28.861524, "relative_strength": 1.220506, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.426045, "energy": 19.126429, "activity_lines": [ 35.910967, 36.325496, 35.85177, 35.303406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.2354, "volume": 239152, "typical_volume": 79858.7, "trend": 34.705117, "fair_value": 28.925907, "relative_strength": -0.382096, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.922407, "energy": 19.211144, "activity_lines": [ 35.569087, 36.114429, 35.874565, 35.346819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.6968, "volume": 29531, "typical_volume": 75718.1, "trend": 34.838363, "fair_value": 29.003616, "relative_strength": 0.158974, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.588929, "energy": 23.608125, "activity_lines": [ 35.831347, 36.180685, 36.022472, 35.475315 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }