{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbd7bf54-c8d4-4618-9acc-e7f75d34ffd8", "symbol": "XD5E", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EMU UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.6, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.105, "architecture_energy": 62.162, "architecture_maturity": 53.727, "architecture_confidence": 67.797, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 54.37, "upward_expansion": 81.08, "deceleration": 65.76, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 10.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.847998, 69.533999, 68.204857, 66.930213 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 71.339996, "trend_reference": 65.599474, "distance_from_trend": 0.087509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.06502, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319522, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.889769, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112406, "excess_performance": -0.058486, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087509, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043308, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068149, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01987, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.098869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13777, "relative_activity": 0.456947, "balance": 1.098869, "dry_up": 0.671383, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022126, "annualized_volatility": 0.164388, "from_high_reference": -0.004882, "from_low_reference": 0.264347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.599474, "fair_value_reference": 54.06502, "structural_low": 57.939999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.004285, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00048, "regime_survival": 0.775, "best_return": 0.088281, "worst_return": -0.095521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.022291, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.016146, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.100455, "worst_return": -0.05903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.063527, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.015716, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.162125, "worst_return": -0.168596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 69.059998, "volume": 13698, "typical_volume": 32100.6, "trend": 65.115593, "fair_value": 53.720453, "relative_strength": -2.661914, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.011401, "energy": 55.756307, "activity_lines": [ 69.070666, 68.864, 67.347905, 66.262847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.470001, "volume": 13417, "typical_volume": 31702.75, "trend": 65.350233, "fair_value": 53.886257, "relative_strength": -2.702174, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.965683, "energy": 50.613503, "activity_lines": [ 69.174, 69.055454, 67.706143, 66.543776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.339996, "volume": 13777, "typical_volume": 30150.1, "trend": 65.599474, "fair_value": 54.06502, "relative_strength": -2.889769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.104928, "energy": 62.162013, "activity_lines": [ 69.847998, 69.533999, 68.204857, 66.930213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }