{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbda0862-f382-4b88-913f-9104feea1320", "symbol": "DOG", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST SHORT DOW30 (POST REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.38, "architecture_energy": 59.034, "architecture_maturity": 47.081, "architecture_confidence": 95.805, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 25.98, "upward_expansion": 9.08, "deceleration": 55.24, "rotation_down": 56.6, "downward_expansion": 82.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.503333, 21.613648, 21.970604, 22.367826 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.05, "trend_reference": 22.730307, "distance_from_trend": -0.073924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.43915, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172535, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.342975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064999, "excess_performance": -0.190624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172535, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046666, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064999, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526883, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14733406, "relative_activity": 1.158753, "balance": 0.526883, "dry_up": 0.836943, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024673, "annualized_volatility": 0.117523, "from_high_reference": -0.163039, "from_low_reference": 0.013676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.730307, "fair_value_reference": 25.43915, "structural_low": 20.766006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.004517, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.015173, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.089676, "worst_return": -0.062339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00305, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.060682, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.111692, "worst_return": -0.083113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.034869, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.124069, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.121298, "worst_return": -0.099055, "sufficient": true }, { 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22.696659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.76, "volume": 9362977, "typical_volume": 19651604.65, "trend": 22.879094, "fair_value": 25.56722, "relative_strength": -14.906282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.680229, "energy": 77.269876, "activity_lines": [ 21.662388, 21.830745, 22.322305, 22.621108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.88, "volume": 8089955, "typical_volume": 16679962.4, "trend": 22.840059, "fair_value": 25.527971, "relative_strength": -13.48156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.23623, "energy": 66.257733, "activity_lines": [ 21.72, 21.807642, 22.228418, 22.55665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.65, "volume": 10380166, "typical_volume": 14444699.55, "trend": 22.786719, "fair_value": 25.485028, "relative_strength": -14.734993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.067361, "energy": 51.801287, "activity_lines": [ 21.704, 21.759074, 22.121807, 22.479872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.05, "volume": 14733406, "typical_volume": 12714881.9, "trend": 22.730307, "fair_value": 25.43915, "relative_strength": -19.342975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.379796, "energy": 59.033903, "activity_lines": [ 21.503333, 21.613648, 21.970604, 22.367826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }