{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "dbe1bb13-a488-4e69-af99-5e3845bb17f1",
    "symbol": "WFG",
    "name": "West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 55.064,
    "architecture_energy": 28.647,
    "architecture_maturity": 32.066,
    "architecture_confidence": 47.474,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.42,
        "rotation_up": 42.31,
        "upward_expansion": 63.66,
        "deceleration": 63.87,
        "rotation_down": 24.86,
        "downward_expansion": 15.99
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        95.822665,
        96.132118,
        93.783295,
        92.600808
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 100.419998,
    "trend_reference": 92.229454,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.088806,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 102.435824,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019679,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.791892,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.008378,
    "excess_performance": -0.112043,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088806,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044314,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019679,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.163011,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027919,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.174243,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008378,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.407489,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 660800,
      "relative_activity": 1.112083,
      "balance": 1.407489,
      "dry_up": 1.287277,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.060701,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.341874,
      "from_high_reference": -0.042038,
      "from_low_reference": 0.255448
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 92.229454,
      "fair_value_reference": 102.435824,
      "structural_low": 80.010386,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.008099,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010424,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.025649,
        "worst_return": -0.067925,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.021876,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.0156,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.125511,
        "worst_return": -0.146219,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.032251,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012567,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.091757,
        "worst_return": -0.23164,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.006849,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.027577,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.135715,
        "worst_return": -0.352922,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.107284,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.042529,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.074729,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.09389,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024508,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.100164,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.077198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.05284,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.026132,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.078834,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.108668,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-06-19",
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        "return": 0.059521,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 91.470001,
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        "typical_volume": 844260.0,
        "trend": 89.294731,
        "fair_value": 103.25457,
        "relative_strength": -16.402798,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 8.85403,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 837885.0,
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        "fair_value": 103.15736,
        "relative_strength": -20.315069,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 84.250801,
        "volume": 920600,
        "typical_volume": 824350.0,
        "trend": 88.547929,
        "fair_value": 103.083092,
        "relative_strength": -20.216234,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.141703,
        "energy": 26.518887,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 81.194923,
        "volume": 675800,
        "typical_volume": 838495.0,
        "trend": 88.16228,
        "fair_value": 102.982221,
        "relative_strength": -21.797233,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -41.092521,
        "energy": 51.021703,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 85.554779,
        "volume": 642600,
        "typical_volume": 841700.0,
        "trend": 87.978042,
        "fair_value": 102.938145,
        "relative_strength": -18.443757,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.844706,
        "energy": 48.234917,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 94.85183,
        "volume": 1379200,
        "typical_volume": 850615.0,
        "trend": 88.315832,
        "fair_value": 102.966291,
        "relative_strength": -9.750629,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 1.731616,
        "energy": 6.895395,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 91.477425,
        "volume": 140800,
        "typical_volume": 799040.0,
        "trend": 88.636152,
        "fair_value": 102.935847,
        "relative_strength": -11.418047,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 8.685555,
        "energy": 8.21309,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 96.076172,
        "volume": 312800,
        "typical_volume": 769550.0,
        "trend": 89.049392,
        "fair_value": 102.912011,
        "relative_strength": -7.725712,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.157848,
        "energy": 37.715486,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 96.922272,
        "volume": 227900,
        "typical_volume": 733935.0,
        "trend": 89.511289,
        "fair_value": 102.878283,
        "relative_strength": -6.423766,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 53.236006,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 98.220001,
        "volume": 114200,
        "typical_volume": 675885.0,
        "trend": 89.928031,
        "fair_value": 102.811186,
        "relative_strength": -4.652165,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.888463,
        "energy": 71.282347,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.321619,
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          90.606781,
          90.644717
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 98.43,
        "volume": 49400,
        "typical_volume": 631385.0,
        "trend": 90.363979,
        "fair_value": 102.754862,
        "relative_strength": -4.577749,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.176007,
        "energy": 76.345504,
        "activity_lines": [
          97.295106,
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          91.193231
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 95.019997,
        "volume": 431900,
        "typical_volume": 612605.0,
        "trend": 90.799746,
        "fair_value": 102.655559,
        "relative_strength": -7.371838,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.173403,
        "energy": 65.469895,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.89338,
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          91.865278,
          91.493619
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 98.540001,
        "volume": 725500,
        "typical_volume": 607355.0,
        "trend": 91.393753,
        "fair_value": 102.585186,
        "relative_strength": -3.271372,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.9182,
        "energy": 52.51963,
        "activity_lines": [
          97.428818,
          96.004439,
          92.653689,
          91.99299
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 93.339996,
        "volume": 748400,
        "typical_volume": 603265.0,
        "trend": 91.779788,
        "fair_value": 102.493112,
        "relative_strength": -8.0958,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.021886,
        "energy": 34.43809,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.066665,
          95.95194,
          92.906689,
          92.118554
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 90.779999,
        "volume": 924900,
        "typical_volume": 612870.0,
        "trend": 91.945275,
        "fair_value": 102.42852,
        "relative_strength": -9.690729,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.853945,
        "energy": 16.016977,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.089998,
          95.213168,
          92.891135,
          92.054052
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 100.419998,
        "volume": 660800,
        "typical_volume": 594200.0,
        "trend": 92.229454,
        "fair_value": 102.435824,
        "relative_strength": -2.791892,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.063874,
        "energy": 28.647399,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.822665,
          96.132118,
          93.783295,
          92.600808
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}