{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbe23af1-5729-4cfb-bba2-003ddf117f64", "symbol": "FWEA", "name": "Invesco FTSE All-World UCITS ETF EUR PfHdg Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.641, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.523, "architecture_energy": 52.742, "architecture_maturity": 80.177, "architecture_confidence": 57.624, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.49, "rotation_up": 47.82, "upward_expansion": 78.9, "deceleration": 71.14, "rotation_down": 28.66, "downward_expansion": 7.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.892667, 8.871236, 8.789324, 8.634129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.092, "trend_reference": 8.4578, "distance_from_trend": 0.074984, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.958321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306637, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.557345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112171, "excess_performance": -0.05872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074984, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036792, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306637, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018137, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.835884, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25848, "relative_activity": 0.942948, "balance": 1.835884, "dry_up": 1.336828, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019628, "annualized_volatility": 0.128437, "from_high_reference": -0.001647, "from_low_reference": 0.225007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.4578, "fair_value_reference": 6.958321, "structural_low": 7.598, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011386, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.007967, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.056234, "worst_return": -0.059194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040574, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.040821, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.067228, "worst_return": -0.068311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.077049, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017066, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.094716, "worst_return": 0.059382, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"close": 9.092, "volume": 25848, "typical_volume": 27411.9, "trend": 8.4578, "fair_value": 6.958321, "relative_strength": -4.557345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.523481, "energy": 52.74194, "activity_lines": [ 8.892667, 8.871236, 8.789324, 8.634129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }