{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbe2ac29-4d41-4920-8350-ba065aceeb8d", "symbol": "IBP", "name": "Installed Building Products Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.615, "architecture_energy": 17.387, "architecture_maturity": 68.966, "architecture_confidence": 76.375, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.73, "rotation_up": 30.41, "upward_expansion": 21.23, "deceleration": 43.04, "rotation_down": 22.45, "downward_expansion": 55.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 231.782, 228.321969, 229.504021, 242.163333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 244.05, "trend_reference": 261.124266, "distance_from_trend": -0.065388, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 211.883214, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151814, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.924744, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.250921, "excess_performance": -0.376546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065388, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050246, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076479, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048662, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250921, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2058079, "relative_activity": 0.986817, "balance": 0.882578, "dry_up": 0.971974, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079343, "annualized_volatility": 0.512474, "from_high_reference": -0.29402, "from_low_reference": 0.26615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 261.124266, "fair_value_reference": 211.883214, "structural_low": 192.749617, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.042247, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.02899, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.251533, "worst_return": -0.235702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.095575, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.057129, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.399862, "worst_return": -0.167339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079554, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.138641, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.330746, "worst_return": -0.255941, "sufficient": 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-19.481978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.539463, "energy": 23.283297, "activity_lines": [ 227.798667, 223.158441, 231.055281, 246.03186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 222.94, "volume": 1841825, "typical_volume": 2092777.25, "trend": 262.776536, "fair_value": 211.267205, "relative_strength": -21.796533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.80867, "energy": 24.411375, "activity_lines": [ 225.926, 223.904021, 229.128654, 243.371497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 244.05, "volume": 2058079, "typical_volume": 2085572.65, "trend": 261.124266, "fair_value": 211.883214, "relative_strength": -16.924744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.614869, "energy": 17.387069, "activity_lines": [ 231.782, 228.321969, 229.504021, 242.163333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }