{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "dbe2ebdf-bfe1-4794-a082-b80d45d5abbc",
    "symbol": "AWAT",
    "name": "Amundi PEA Eau (MSCI Water) UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 60.233,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 47.061,
    "architecture_energy": 39.577,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.727,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.668,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.49,
        "rotation_up": 63.24,
        "upward_expansion": 53.09,
        "deceleration": 38.88,
        "rotation_down": 22.64,
        "downward_expansion": 11.43
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        32.539667,
        32.3968,
        31.876567,
        31.784512
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 32.974998,
    "trend_reference": 31.805934,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.036756,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 29.897255,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102944,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -1.636309,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.009058,
    "excess_performance": -0.044254,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036756,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016743,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.102944,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048682,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.016363,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003091,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009058,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.289702,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 37651,
      "relative_activity": 1.10794,
      "balance": 2.289702,
      "dry_up": 1.221901,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.023017,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.141183,
      "from_high_reference": -0.013286,
      "from_low_reference": 0.156206
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 31.805934,
      "fair_value_reference": 29.897255,
      "structural_low": 28.52,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.034043,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.166667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003164,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.001826,
        "worst_return": -0.086205,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.000914,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024108,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.09845,
        "worst_return": -0.041333,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.034035,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.011275,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.100089,
        "worst_return": -0.03709,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.06371,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.061814,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.216239,
        "worst_return": 0.004982,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.024936,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.036603,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006054,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.012802,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.012507,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006065,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016564,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004859,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.057237,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.057528,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.016656,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.018066,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030859,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009954,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 81744.6,
        "trend": 24.9521,
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      },
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        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.643994,
        "energy": 19.658614,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.780534,
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          31.783996,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 30.995001,
        "volume": 30377,
        "typical_volume": 39838.7,
        "trend": 31.33146,
        "fair_value": 29.399704,
        "relative_strength": -1.327164,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 17.293447,
        "energy": 8.991283,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.528401,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 30.228001,
        "volume": 39682,
        "typical_volume": 41198.5,
        "trend": 31.320727,
        "fair_value": 29.43121,
        "relative_strength": -1.797049,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.345585,
        "energy": 32.4139,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.044934,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 30.389,
        "volume": 71717,
        "typical_volume": 43447.85,
        "trend": 31.291334,
        "fair_value": 29.467024,
        "relative_strength": -3.194685,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.356716,
        "energy": 42.756065,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 30.424999,
        "volume": 59445,
        "typical_volume": 43666.35,
        "trend": 31.282167,
        "fair_value": 29.49821,
        "relative_strength": -3.799065,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.64312,
        "energy": 50.960836,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 30.613001,
        "volume": 11666,
        "typical_volume": 41729.15,
        "trend": 31.289267,
        "fair_value": 29.528826,
        "relative_strength": -3.53999,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.315516,
        "energy": 52.064731,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 30.938,
        "volume": 8712,
        "typical_volume": 39679.45,
        "trend": 31.3072,
        "fair_value": 29.560339,
        "relative_strength": -3.977509,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.231214,
        "energy": 36.833075,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 31.594999,
        "volume": 14802,
        "typical_volume": 37684.35,
        "trend": 31.3664,
        "fair_value": 29.598403,
        "relative_strength": -2.68477,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -29.907771,
        "energy": 17.459539,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.987,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 32.57,
        "volume": 12267,
        "typical_volume": 36018.1,
        "trend": 31.423867,
        "fair_value": 29.640223,
        "relative_strength": 0.756962,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 21.083943,
        "energy": 23.526893,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.579666,
          31.189545,
          31.271291,
          31.417516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 32.650002,
        "volume": 11919,
        "typical_volume": 34570.7,
        "trend": 31.488134,
        "fair_value": 29.68614,
        "relative_strength": -0.434557,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 46.831117,
        "energy": 48.911704,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.053601,
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          31.377396,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 32.48,
        "volume": 48545,
        "typical_volume": 35353.65,
        "trend": 31.5508,
        "fair_value": 29.731646,
        "relative_strength": 1.023358,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 40.441985,
        "energy": 62.326009,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.322534,
          31.697928,
          31.470881,
          31.560613
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 32.564999,
        "volume": 42826,
        "typical_volume": 35616.8,
        "trend": 31.624634,
        "fair_value": 29.772486,
        "relative_strength": 1.268928,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 40.543887,
        "energy": 67.859911,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.495333,
          31.930055,
          31.575462,
          31.626046
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 32.650002,
        "volume": 38620,
        "typical_volume": 34797.65,
        "trend": 31.704167,
        "fair_value": 29.812883,
        "relative_strength": 1.109587,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.146792,
        "energy": 62.311953,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.588001,
          32.149091,
          31.692024,
          31.692198
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 31.915001,
        "volume": 46998,
        "typical_volume": 34762.25,
        "trend": 31.754967,
        "fair_value": 29.851403,
        "relative_strength": -2.608628,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.704927,
        "energy": 35.113381,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.365334,
          32.190455,
          31.734915,
          31.7058
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 32.974998,
        "volume": 37651,
        "typical_volume": 33982.9,
        "trend": 31.805934,
        "fair_value": 29.897255,
        "relative_strength": -1.636309,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 47.061143,
        "energy": 39.576625,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.539667,
          32.3968,
          31.876567,
          31.784512
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}