{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbe631ab-79e3-4440-b957-4c65f19366fe", "symbol": "TEL", "name": "TE Connectivity Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.032, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.696, "architecture_energy": 10.419, "architecture_maturity": 60.011, "architecture_confidence": 60.263, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.68, "rotation_up": 28.11, "upward_expansion": 18.56, "deceleration": 40.83, "rotation_down": 25.87, "downward_expansion": 54.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 208.014, 205.960909, 207.61271, 209.269392 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 216.33, "trend_reference": 212.948386, "distance_from_trend": 0.01588, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 167.119855, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29446, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.197489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008842, "excess_performance": -0.116783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01588, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035448, "read": "Falling" 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190.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02632, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -8.9e-05, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.228934, "worst_return": -0.146613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050149, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.002554, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.390952, "worst_return": -0.109363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117121, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002122, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238834, "worst_return": 0.021494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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202.94, "volume": 20565984, "typical_volume": 12280671.85, "trend": 214.269138, "fair_value": 166.073307, "relative_strength": -13.273871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.14912, "energy": 44.040478, "activity_lines": [ 201.442667, 204.142909, 207.133231, 209.63415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 205.69, "volume": 14351865, "typical_volume": 12547152.6, "trend": 213.404613, "fair_value": 166.545803, "relative_strength": -12.794304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.786601, "energy": 25.444888, "activity_lines": [ 203.22, 204.111091, 206.883075, 209.080657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 216.33, "volume": 11895936, "typical_volume": 12614419.6, "trend": 212.948386, "fair_value": 167.119855, "relative_strength": -11.197489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.695792, "energy": 10.418711, "activity_lines": [ 208.014, 205.960909, 207.61271, 209.269392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }