{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbece949-b6b1-4a63-b6bf-6678149e3563", "symbol": "VPCG", "name": "Leverage Shares Vanilla Blue Chip Portfolio ETP", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.625, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.806, "architecture_energy": 23.993, "architecture_maturity": 16.435, "architecture_confidence": 50.825, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.0, "rotation_up": 38.02, "upward_expansion": 60.51, "deceleration": 64.06, "rotation_down": 21.51, "downward_expansion": 12.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.991667, 9.996045, 9.94481, 9.867406 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.1225, "trend_reference": 9.749167, "distance_from_trend": 0.038294, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.380973, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.231526, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080165, "excess_performance": 0.02893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007935, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018896, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015402, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.746877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23399, "relative_activity": 1.704783, "balance": 1.746877, "dry_up": 1.24347, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029556, "annualized_volatility": 0.119184, "from_high_reference": -0.216747, "from_low_reference": 0.124098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.749167, "fair_value_reference": 9.380973, "structural_low": 9.2675, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012175, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002898, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.014035, "worst_return": 0.005342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.021702, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001188, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.021702, "worst_return": 0.021702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.342369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050157, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072417, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023343, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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10.1675, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 14963.35, "trend": 9.690958, "fair_value": 9.356068, "relative_strength": -3.825109, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.151081, "energy": 60.013301, "activity_lines": [ 10.05425, 9.974318, 9.874768, 9.78603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.88, "volume": 14967, "typical_volume": 14157.25, "trend": 9.697458, "fair_value": 9.360508, "relative_strength": -4.778832, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.753394, "energy": 47.408615, "activity_lines": [ 10.011083, 9.963795, 9.884, 9.798226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.9625, "volume": 37440, "typical_volume": 14753.0, "trend": 9.709833, "fair_value": 9.365566, "relative_strength": -4.747239, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.581742, "energy": 28.712842, "activity_lines": [ 9.996167, 9.968523, 9.899464, 9.815325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.9575, "volume": 840, "typical_volume": 12990.9, "trend": 9.724333, "fair_value": 9.370499, "relative_strength": -5.806538, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.028662, "energy": 22.859042, "activity_lines": [ 9.970583, 9.970705, 9.912893, 9.831304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.89625, "volume": 6590, "typical_volume": 13215.2, "trend": 9.734833, "fair_value": 9.374844, "relative_strength": -7.28674, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.490142, "energy": 15.796692, "activity_lines": [ 9.94175, 9.962705, 9.918738, 9.842395 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.1225, "volume": 23399, "typical_volume": 13725.5, "trend": 9.749167, "fair_value": 9.380973, "relative_strength": -5.231526, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.806126, "energy": 23.993193, "activity_lines": [ 9.991667, 9.996045, 9.94481, 9.867406 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }