{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbef4aa7-17b0-434a-b8cc-42f89abd45a6", "symbol": "200037", "name": "Shenzhen Nanshan Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.47, "architecture_energy": 14.124, "architecture_maturity": 39.559, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.39, "rotation_up": 29.31, "upward_expansion": 57.2, "deceleration": 89.46, "rotation_down": 29.5, "downward_expansion": 18.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.331333, 2.327709, 2.359492, 2.307967 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.44, "trend_reference": 2.218837, "distance_from_trend": 0.099675, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.911251, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276651, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.765417, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.244898, "excess_performance": 0.237498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099675, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11614, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137654, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207456, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.244898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.273909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3644408, "relative_activity": 0.953424, "balance": 4.273909, "dry_up": 0.831774, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084262, "annualized_volatility": 0.349296, "from_high_reference": -0.140671, "from_low_reference": 0.386364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.218837, "fair_value_reference": 1.911251, "structural_low": 1.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001923, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.000178, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.114155, "worst_return": -0.033898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016705, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005141, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.10582, "worst_return": -0.016304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008904, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.107692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027174, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022099, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011173, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062147, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010811, "active": 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"typical_volume": 3814942.35, "trend": 2.162171, "fair_value": 1.912469, "relative_strength": -3.046315, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.086585, "energy": 24.21612, "activity_lines": [ 2.291829, 2.405667, 2.3524, 2.273151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.21, "volume": 2480279, "typical_volume": 3824849.3, "trend": 2.172504, "fair_value": 1.911443, "relative_strength": 7.602782, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.034926, "energy": 28.262641, "activity_lines": [ 2.232225, 2.364995, 2.345613, 2.276237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.28, "volume": 4120038, "typical_volume": 3920132.65, "trend": 2.185504, "fair_value": 1.910802, "relative_strength": 10.521186, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.849124, "energy": 20.91213, "activity_lines": [ 2.232, 2.337021, 2.344636, 2.283172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.33, "volume": 2472913, "typical_volume": 3838677.9, "trend": 2.200171, "fair_value": 1.910546, "relative_strength": 14.498916, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.944739, "energy": 14.734233, "activity_lines": [ 2.267333, 2.320782, 2.347326, 2.292494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.44, "volume": 3644408, "typical_volume": 3822442.7, "trend": 2.218837, "fair_value": 1.911251, "relative_strength": 13.765417, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.470461, "energy": 14.12426, "activity_lines": [ 2.331333, 2.327709, 2.359492, 2.307967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }