{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbf245e5-6dd9-4e3e-87cf-1aff8ac9b2ed", "symbol": "CNGL", "name": "Canada Global (T.R) Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.83, "architecture_energy": 19.387, "architecture_maturity": 37.844, "architecture_confidence": 78.58, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.82, "rotation_up": 20.34, "upward_expansion": 14.87, "deceleration": 67.71, "rotation_down": 53.92, "downward_expansion": 44.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.174733, 7.358782, 88.342686, 83.131428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.868, "trend_reference": 68.614967, "distance_from_trend": -0.899905, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.210641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.64249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -84.377775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.361116, "excess_performance": -0.390017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.899905, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.64249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.901672, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.843778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.4679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.361116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939708, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5764, "relative_activity": 0.486055, "balance": 0.939708, "dry_up": 0.32963, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 22.449554, "annualized_volatility": 9.187591, "from_high_reference": -0.9933, "from_low_reference": 0.018689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.614967, "fair_value_reference": 19.210641, "structural_low": 6.742, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.025429, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013766, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.157719, "worst_return": -0.99486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01725, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046521, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.979138, "worst_return": -0.194145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061069, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018522, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.142226, "worst_return": -0.265381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.897979, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.917774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.858326, "worst_return": 0.188011, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.271833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050598, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.331453, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050463, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152995, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.254967, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.991875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046566, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05249, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084633, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.453, "volume": 51993, "typical_volume": 27164.9, "trend": 3.6431, "fair_value": 2.243397, "relative_strength": 17.738442, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 7.289, "volume": 4319, "typical_volume": 14078.85, "trend": 69.1636, "fair_value": 19.117603, "relative_strength": -83.22481, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.38053, "energy": 33.253436, "activity_lines": [ 7.553067, 120.311674, 122.940567, 99.068816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.43, "volume": 712, "typical_volume": 13364.7, "trend": 69.053267, "fair_value": 19.142577, "relative_strength": -83.193432, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.809643, "energy": 29.353012, "activity_lines": [ 7.471067, 87.657528, 114.289386, 95.086003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.04, "volume": 739, "typical_volume": 12420.9, "trend": 68.885267, "fair_value": 19.165051, "relative_strength": -84.421614, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.711501, "energy": 24.177127, "activity_lines": [ 7.297067, 54.966655, 105.615253, 91.085147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.503, "volume": 8421, "typical_volume": 12595.0, "trend": 68.768367, "fair_value": 19.190558, "relative_strength": -82.91659, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.05355, "energy": 20.752647, "activity_lines": [ 7.337, 22.411382, 97.002786, 87.125001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.868, "volume": 5764, "typical_volume": 11858.75, "trend": 68.614967, "fair_value": 19.210641, "relative_strength": -84.377775, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.829961, "energy": 19.387012, "activity_lines": [ 7.174733, 7.358782, 88.342686, 83.131428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }