{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbf4418a-a5cd-4ad9-8d63-568ea3e369e2", "symbol": "HYDD", "name": "BYD Company Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.811, "architecture_energy": 24.845, "architecture_maturity": 71.3, "architecture_confidence": 64.233, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.06, "rotation_up": 37.59, "upward_expansion": 21.25, "deceleration": 43.95, "rotation_down": 18.66, "downward_expansion": 52.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.48, 1.435523, 1.46941, 1.508585 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.48, "trend_reference": 1.547786, "distance_from_trend": -0.043796, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.768707, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163231, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.604569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013333, "excess_performance": -0.168168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043796, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040625, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163231, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050389, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 641500, "relative_activity": 0.616063, "balance": 0.940419, "dry_up": 0.711617, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068735, "annualized_volatility": 0.357918, "from_high_reference": -0.256281, "from_low_reference": 0.233333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.547786, "fair_value_reference": 1.768707, "structural_low": 1.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.196721, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.120329, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.196721, "worst_return": 0.196721, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213115, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 1.549343, "volume": 364500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 1.582309, "volume": 168300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"typical_volume": 1128015.0, "trend": 1.55412, "fair_value": 1.774986, "relative_strength": -24.655737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.54873, "energy": 28.256737, "activity_lines": [ 1.418667, 1.403861, 1.476111, 1.514729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.53, "volume": 817200, "typical_volume": 1110980.0, "trend": 1.55112, "fair_value": 1.772104, "relative_strength": -20.791486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.796277, "energy": 23.547667, "activity_lines": [ 1.468, 1.424567, 1.474998, 1.513173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.48, "volume": 641500, "typical_volume": 1041290.0, "trend": 1.547786, "fair_value": 1.768707, "relative_strength": -23.604569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.810786, "energy": 24.84519, "activity_lines": [ 1.48, 1.435523, 1.46941, 1.508585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }