{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbfe686b-3d3c-4daa-abf3-dd764a49d301", "symbol": "FXB", "name": "INVESCO CCY SHS BRIT POUND STLG TR BRIT POUND STERLING SHS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.849, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.498, "architecture_energy": 24.854, "architecture_maturity": 20.484, "architecture_confidence": 51.279, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.06, "rotation_up": 58.37, "upward_expansion": 47.33, "deceleration": 37.44, "rotation_down": 20.96, "downward_expansion": 10.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 129.12482, 128.599309, 128.570763, 128.540629 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 129.7009, "trend_reference": 128.630867, "distance_from_trend": 0.008319, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 121.028052, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.745779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002241, "excess_performance": -0.127865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008319, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002241, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.074149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35170, "relative_activity": 0.225878, "balance": 1.074149, "dry_up": 0.685872, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012279, "annualized_volatility": 0.06693, "from_high_reference": -0.0173, "from_low_reference": 0.050173 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 128.630867, "fair_value_reference": 121.028052, "structural_low": 126.135317, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.002843, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021198, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.021808, "worst_return": -0.020967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017684, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.063627, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.001328, "worst_return": -0.088635, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058146, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.016815, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -18.210824, "energy": 8.93704, "activity_lines": [ 128.284384, 128.138307, 128.378704, 128.450615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 127.87784, "volume": 245927, "typical_volume": 165150.85, "trend": 128.523559, "fair_value": 120.816937, "relative_strength": -7.492912, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.750728, "energy": 17.538786, "activity_lines": [ 128.298486, 128.093649, 128.339191, 128.407469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 129.453079, "volume": 47149, "typical_volume": 163232.0, "trend": 128.566436, "fair_value": 120.920507, "relative_strength": -7.079497, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.835203, "energy": 14.010346, "activity_lines": [ 128.760214, 128.329823, 128.450261, 128.467438 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 129.7009, "volume": 35170, "typical_volume": 155703.25, "trend": 128.630867, "fair_value": 121.028052, "relative_strength": -9.745779, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.498351, "energy": 24.854271, "activity_lines": [ 129.12482, 128.599309, 128.570763, 128.540629 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }