{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbffbf76-609c-4742-b4ee-d63dd674d995", "symbol": "8020", "name": "Malath Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.773, "architecture_energy": 50.718, "architecture_maturity": 22.406, "architecture_confidence": 74.08, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.0, "rotation_up": 63.61, "upward_expansion": 80.24, "deceleration": 63.68, "rotation_down": 15.75, "downward_expansion": 6.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.196667, 10.063818, 9.631571, 9.457871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.33, "trend_reference": 9.368333, "distance_from_trend": 0.102651, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.707692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.297646, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.085948, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064948, "excess_performance": 0.096778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102651, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.297646, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010859, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216344, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064948, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.061124, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 973364, "relative_activity": 0.898009, "balance": 1.061124, "dry_up": 0.860397, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056519, "annualized_volatility": 0.246393, "from_high_reference": -0.245435, "from_low_reference": 0.269042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.368333, "fair_value_reference": 14.707692, "structural_low": 8.14, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018051, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028196, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.246947, "worst_return": -0.18197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.128654, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.102398, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.535957, "worst_return": -0.186761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.21513, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.092326, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289009, "worst_return": -0.232278, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.39, "volume": 3717272, "typical_volume": 992102.35, "trend": 9.231, "fair_value": 15.09859, "relative_strength": -0.615374, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.819635, "energy": 57.511763, "activity_lines": [ 9.650667, 9.290727, 9.118476, 9.151269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.37, "volume": 1423209, "typical_volume": 1020697.5, "trend": 9.246333, "fair_value": 15.030577, "relative_strength": -0.1762, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.675065, "energy": 75.325893, "activity_lines": [ 9.960667, 9.521455, 9.246238, 9.224753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.35, "volume": 1725276, "typical_volume": 1079292.55, "trend": 9.281333, "fair_value": 14.949744, "relative_strength": 0.883893, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.037577, "energy": 83.996261, "activity_lines": [ 10.166, 9.722545, 9.367048, 9.295957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.21, "volume": 554797, "typical_volume": 1063203.5, "trend": 9.318333, "fair_value": 14.878269, "relative_strength": -0.712045, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.73647, "energy": 81.804374, "activity_lines": [ 10.246667, 9.873091, 9.468238, 9.355871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.9, "volume": 476944, "typical_volume": 1046436.9, "trend": 9.330667, "fair_value": 14.795064, "relative_strength": -1.310601, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.908972, "energy": 65.218485, "activity_lines": [ 10.168, 9.941636, 9.532762, 9.393398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.33, "volume": 973364, "typical_volume": 1083913.25, "trend": 9.368333, "fair_value": 14.707692, "relative_strength": 1.085948, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.773335, "energy": 50.717675, "activity_lines": [ 10.196667, 10.063818, 9.631571, 9.457871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }