{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc02fb31-eac4-4ac8-837f-0742a05e2fc1", "symbol": "SAR", "name": "Sareum Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 70.242, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.889, "architecture_energy": 33.039, "architecture_maturity": 20.864, "architecture_confidence": 87.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.2, "rotation_up": 49.16, "upward_expansion": 76.85, "deceleration": 57.26, "rotation_down": 21.14, "downward_expansion": 3.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.229333, 0.225818, 0.220833, 0.209226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 0.196583, "distance_from_trend": 0.169987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.292394, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213391, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.009265, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.352941, "excess_performance": 0.301706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151293, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213391, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246523, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.120093, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04332, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.352941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.474255, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 513321, "relative_activity": 0.576899, "balance": 1.474255, "dry_up": 1.208831, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135686, "annualized_volatility": 0.613953, "from_high_reference": -0.206897, "from_low_reference": 1.555556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.196583, "fair_value_reference": 0.292394, "structural_low": 0.13, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.031579, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.043631, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.325, "worst_return": -0.433962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.170979, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.137258, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.135802, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.356643, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.437574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.25, "worst_return": -0.48, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.991378, "energy": 23.780837, "activity_lines": [ 0.218667, 0.221182, 0.209738, 0.199489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.24, "volume": 846553, "typical_volume": 847462.7, "trend": 0.19125, "fair_value": 0.306913, "relative_strength": 20.870029, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.606946, "energy": 35.554367, "activity_lines": [ 0.225667, 0.224909, 0.214036, 0.202801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.22, "volume": 1576783, "typical_volume": 894973.8, "trend": 0.193583, "fair_value": 0.301593, "relative_strength": 9.38514, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.167074, "energy": 31.295715, "activity_lines": [ 0.225333, 0.224273, 0.216, 0.204656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.23, "volume": 1365786, "typical_volume": 896146.05, "trend": 0.195583, "fair_value": 0.296817, "relative_strength": 12.689722, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.810755, "energy": 34.913463, "activity_lines": [ 0.228, 0.225273, 0.218607, 0.207005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 513321, "typical_volume": 889793.9, "trend": 0.196583, "fair_value": 0.292394, "relative_strength": 12.009265, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.888993, "energy": 33.039342, "activity_lines": [ 0.229333, 0.225818, 0.220833, 0.209226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }