{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc1032d4-f16f-48b9-b9de-13fcc6c1de44", "symbol": "NDO", "name": "Nido Education Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.127, "architecture_energy": 9.347, "architecture_maturity": 22.515, "architecture_confidence": 59.237, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.26, "rotation_up": 29.31, "upward_expansion": 26.99, "deceleration": 44.78, "rotation_down": 23.84, "downward_expansion": 46.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.366333, 0.360273, 0.352643, 0.364946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.365, "trend_reference": 0.391864, "distance_from_trend": -0.068554, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.653575, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.441533, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.184834, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.216812, "excess_performance": -0.280518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.441533, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031832, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07954, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 670887, "relative_activity": 1.192957, "balance": 0.742936, "dry_up": 1.055395, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1549, "annualized_volatility": 0.681932, "from_high_reference": -0.489835, "from_low_reference": 0.586957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.391864, "fair_value_reference": 0.653575, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.093334, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.103586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.093334, "worst_return": -0.093334, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.085565, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.127312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.085565, "worst_return": -0.085565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.187927, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.201889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.187927, "worst_return": -0.187927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.924923, "energy": 17.237369, "activity_lines": [ 0.355, 0.343636, 0.353101, 0.376485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.365, "volume": 639652, "typical_volume": 617221.55, "trend": 0.411725, "fair_value": 0.659621, "relative_strength": -25.700935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.486145, "energy": 18.410269, "activity_lines": [ 0.361, 0.348545, 0.352557, 0.373069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.345, "volume": 600486, "typical_volume": 591070.65, "trend": 0.405471, "fair_value": 0.657452, "relative_strength": -28.753084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.683535, "energy": 17.039388, "activity_lines": [ 0.359333, 0.349727, 0.350476, 0.368764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.38, "volume": 463078, "typical_volume": 567381.75, "trend": 0.398719, "fair_value": 0.655551, "relative_strength": -22.530116, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.787389, "energy": 10.21099, "activity_lines": [ 0.366333, 0.357273, 0.352214, 0.367121 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.365, "volume": 670887, "typical_volume": 562373.2, "trend": 0.391864, "fair_value": 0.653575, "relative_strength": -27.184834, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.127045, "energy": 9.34702, "activity_lines": [ 0.366333, 0.360273, 0.352643, 0.364946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }