{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc10aa4b-a931-4809-8826-7af58c6a1293", "symbol": "000523", "name": "Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.Guangzhou", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.81, "architecture_energy": 37.649, "architecture_maturity": 88.579, "architecture_confidence": 85.949, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.56, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 18.4, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 35.69, "downward_expansion": 66.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.808, 2.768727, 2.915429, 3.072796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.88, "trend_reference": 3.312667, "distance_from_trend": -0.13061, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.185641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.762042, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.28, "excess_performance": -0.2874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13061, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066416, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095943, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149368, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033788, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.934023, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110195870, "relative_activity": 1.168058, "balance": 0.934023, "dry_up": 1.251724, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072917, "annualized_volatility": 0.329408, "from_high_reference": -0.346939, "from_low_reference": 0.129412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.312667, "fair_value_reference": 3.185641, "structural_low": 2.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.007605, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.018987, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.159836, "worst_return": -0.147692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044047, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.067011, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.406504, "worst_return": -0.075188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043402, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.049942, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.300752, "worst_return": -0.189655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.76, "volume": 119466306, "typical_volume": 100811944.1, "trend": 3.417, "fair_value": 3.195641, "relative_strength": -18.561787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.041678, "energy": 82.001547, "activity_lines": [ 2.694667, 2.800364, 3.004143, 3.183785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.65, "volume": 94225172, "typical_volume": 95152396.0, "trend": 3.381, "fair_value": 3.191538, "relative_strength": -21.554866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.645125, "energy": 64.38694, "activity_lines": [ 2.682, 2.749455, 2.955, 3.134301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.89, "volume": 148468843, "typical_volume": 95704237.45, "trend": 3.342333, "fair_value": 3.188718, "relative_strength": -12.632487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.310598, "energy": 48.248679, "activity_lines": [ 2.757333, 2.756727, 2.933857, 3.102624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.88, "volume": 110195870, "typical_volume": 94341107.0, "trend": 3.312667, "fair_value": 3.185641, "relative_strength": -16.762042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.810389, "energy": 37.648593, "activity_lines": [ 2.808, 2.768727, 2.915429, 3.072796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }