{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc167fa5-1a4f-4e6c-b666-4384f4b7352d", "symbol": "AMAR3", "name": "Marisa Lojas S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.164, "architecture_energy": 64.369, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.603, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.23, "rotation_up": 25.74, "upward_expansion": 11.2, "deceleration": 60.17, "rotation_down": 63.85, "downward_expansion": 89.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.578667, 0.595818, 0.650238, 0.708237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.56, "trend_reference": 0.788333, "distance_from_trend": -0.289641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.534763, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.635123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.357064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.416667, "excess_performance": -0.359618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.289641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151722, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.635123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.433571, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.416667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588966, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 710300, "relative_activity": 0.974382, "balance": 0.588966, "dry_up": 1.655715, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112637, "annualized_volatility": 0.35962, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.788333, "fair_value_reference": 1.534763, "structural_low": 0.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.060943, "positive_rate": 0.369565, "directional_follow_through": 0.586957, "median_excess_return": -0.053457, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.434615, "worst_return": -0.377953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.108911, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.201575, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.258065, "worst_return": -0.533333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.311996, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.45846, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.576087, "worst_return": -0.573333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11859, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.579767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.256637, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028369, "active": false 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.624053, "energy": 66.121746, "activity_lines": [ 0.623333, 0.638909, 0.715286, 0.771419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.59, "volume": 799300, "typical_volume": 614835.0, "trend": 0.831667, "fair_value": 1.607648, "relative_strength": -44.129028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.848313, "energy": 67.668226, "activity_lines": [ 0.609333, 0.624545, 0.69781, 0.754925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6, "volume": 2667800, "typical_volume": 719985.0, "trend": 0.818333, "fair_value": 1.583609, "relative_strength": -42.179967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.506744, "energy": 62.655392, "activity_lines": [ 0.604, 0.616182, 0.682762, 0.739978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.57, "volume": 650500, "typical_volume": 732930.0, "trend": 0.803667, "fair_value": 1.558417, "relative_strength": -45.203234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.552648, "energy": 63.551685, "activity_lines": [ 0.591333, 0.606, 0.666238, 0.723957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.56, "volume": 710300, "typical_volume": 728975.0, "trend": 0.788333, "fair_value": 1.534763, "relative_strength": -43.357064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.164337, "energy": 64.36879, "activity_lines": [ 0.578667, 0.595818, 0.650238, 0.708237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }