{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc183f30-30a1-4a92-99ec-f8e3d73ada91", "symbol": "MT", "name": "ArcelorMittal S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.433, "architecture_energy": 71.612, "architecture_maturity": 19.472, "architecture_confidence": 89.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.4, "rotation_up": 72.22, "upward_expansion": 92.4, "deceleration": 41.71, "rotation_down": 16.95, "downward_expansion": 14.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.4936, 59.004329, 57.223881, 55.141442 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 62.759998, "trend_reference": 52.58932, "distance_from_trend": 0.193398, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.427419, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.062613, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.594622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.230128, "excess_performance": 0.055881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.193398, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15692, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.062613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184656, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.175946, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.230128, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.630083, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2220, "relative_activity": 0.323394, "balance": 1.630083, "dry_up": 1.519294, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060011, "annualized_volatility": 0.439363, "from_high_reference": -0.030134, "from_low_reference": 1.314251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.58932, "fair_value_reference": 30.427419, "structural_low": 39.906992, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.034817, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": 0.005104, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.220874, "worst_return": -0.221698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.117255, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.089736, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.284556, "worst_return": -0.220715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05697, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.009367, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.505367, "worst_return": -0.226401, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 60.898836, "volume": 13900, "typical_volume": 7125.5, "trend": 51.841585, "fair_value": 30.174415, "relative_strength": 18.545617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.534693, "energy": 56.980412, "activity_lines": [ 59.164189, 58.153036, 56.370807, 54.437028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.759998, "volume": 2220, "typical_volume": 6864.7, "trend": 52.58932, "fair_value": 30.427419, "relative_strength": 17.594622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.433313, "energy": 71.611708, "activity_lines": [ 60.4936, 59.004329, 57.223881, 55.141442 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }