{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc190b45-106f-48bd-83ea-d537d6e06bca", "symbol": "EQAC", "name": "Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.828, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.521, "architecture_energy": 29.879, "architecture_maturity": 68.956, "architecture_confidence": 83.327, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.29, "rotation_up": 28.34, "upward_expansion": 59.79, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.91, "downward_expansion": 21.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 429.925336, 434.266184, 430.723383, 417.132969 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 439.980011, "trend_reference": 400.18, "distance_from_trend": 0.099455, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 326.067179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349354, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.465459, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.220573, "excess_performance": 0.049681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059764, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349354, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017902, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014655, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.220573, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.431779, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25459, "relative_activity": 1.736506, "balance": 1.431779, "dry_up": 1.354303, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034683, "annualized_volatility": 0.18883, "from_high_reference": -0.029663, "from_low_reference": 0.307791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 400.18, "fair_value_reference": 326.067179, "structural_low": 344.179993, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022462, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.008482, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089715, "worst_return": -0.071455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052542, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023686, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.167905, "worst_return": 0.017358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.16522, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222804, "worst_return": 0.001689, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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323.574743, "relative_strength": -1.164636, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.824505, "energy": 39.529471, "activity_lines": [ 433.560667, 437.804911, 427.582049, 413.064495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 417.589996, "volume": 28037, "typical_volume": 13961.4, "trend": 398.096333, "fair_value": 324.731474, "relative_strength": -3.732089, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.497114, "energy": 26.96786, "activity_lines": [ 427.269332, 433.82491, 428.211096, 414.430796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 439.980011, "volume": 25459, "typical_volume": 14661.05, "trend": 400.18, "fair_value": 326.067179, "relative_strength": -1.465459, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.521239, "energy": 29.879186, "activity_lines": [ 429.925336, 434.266184, 430.723383, 417.132969 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }