{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc19576d-4826-451f-82dd-f5b1774fa7cd", "symbol": "TVV", "name": "OxPay Financial Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.94, "architecture_energy": 46.635, "architecture_maturity": 71.206, "architecture_confidence": 89.394, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.74, "rotation_up": 23.94, "upward_expansion": 8.27, "deceleration": 44.94, "rotation_down": 49.9, "downward_expansion": 81.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.034333, 0.034582, 0.036752, 0.038118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.034, "trend_reference": 0.0404, "distance_from_trend": -0.158416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.043301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214804, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.720214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26087, "excess_performance": -0.415705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214804, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.367202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.345835, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 318400, "relative_activity": 0.150594, "balance": 2.345835, "dry_up": 0.135554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108597, "annualized_volatility": 0.700678, "from_high_reference": -0.460317, "from_low_reference": 0.030303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0404, "fair_value_reference": 0.043301, "structural_low": 0.033, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.568627, "median_excess_return": -0.04811, "regime_survival": 0.921569, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.42623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.135554, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.112809, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.588235, "worst_return": -0.569231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.241128, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.252891, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.12, "worst_return": -0.588235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.292308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.477273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.196078, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.26087, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.066, "volume": 435100, "typical_volume": 515635.0, "trend": 0.0819, "fair_value": 0.234968, "relative_strength": -34.645892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.776769, "energy": 60.696985, "activity_lines": [ 0.0662, 0.068564, 0.073152, 0.075892 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.065, "volume": 708700, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.036, "volume": 260000, "typical_volume": 2104195.0, "trend": 0.042167, "fair_value": 0.043897, "relative_strength": -33.548563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.548944, "energy": 47.498178, "activity_lines": [ 0.035, 0.035964, 0.038119, 0.039583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.034, "volume": 568000, "typical_volume": 2117040.0, "trend": 0.0416, "fair_value": 0.043705, "relative_strength": -37.114126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.809199, "energy": 46.552674, "activity_lines": [ 0.034733, 0.035291, 0.037643, 0.039056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2101370.0, "trend": 0.040933, "fair_value": 0.043519, "relative_strength": -36.656266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.244193, "energy": 41.744749, "activity_lines": [ 0.034533, 0.034873, 0.037195, 0.038566 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.034, "volume": 318400, "typical_volume": 2114290.0, "trend": 0.0404, "fair_value": 0.043301, "relative_strength": -36.720214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.939847, "energy": 46.634944, "activity_lines": [ 0.034333, 0.034582, 0.036752, 0.038118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }