{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc1f6dc6-3fc3-4c26-9512-f3d5ee3898c7", "symbol": "603685", "name": "Zhejiang Chenfeng Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.677, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.959, "architecture_energy": 46.515, "architecture_maturity": 4.636, "architecture_confidence": 54.744, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.08, "rotation_up": 15.18, "upward_expansion": 24.13, "deceleration": 50.91, "rotation_down": 63.62, "downward_expansion": 51.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.692, 27.797997, 29.478538, 29.368594 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.23, "trend_reference": 28.157777, "distance_from_trend": -0.032949, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.674587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.633024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.789102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.27243, "excess_performance": 0.315634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032949, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118748, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.633024, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.512439, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137891, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.27243, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.476568, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13346501, "relative_activity": 0.9416, "balance": 1.476568, "dry_up": 0.905193, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118132, "annualized_volatility": 0.462056, "from_high_reference": -0.26226, "from_low_reference": 0.836143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.157777, "fair_value_reference": 16.674587, "structural_low": 21.440001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.026795, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019787, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052768, "worst_return": 0.000822, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.051038, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067794, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051038, "worst_return": 0.051038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.217128, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067644, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.217128, "worst_return": -0.217128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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22.065503, "activity_lines": [ 29.997323, 31.032663, 31.001617, 29.463017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.75, "volume": 15434866, "typical_volume": 16658862.2, "trend": 27.215444, "fair_value": 16.370856, "relative_strength": 27.067575, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.334905, "energy": 15.99176, "activity_lines": [ 29.713102, 30.681148, 30.952649, 29.645719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.219999, "volume": 12968204, "typical_volume": 15917044.55, "trend": 27.464777, "fair_value": 16.449968, "relative_strength": 22.072026, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.697464, "energy": 20.211174, "activity_lines": [ 28.827123, 29.925451, 30.638776, 29.646013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.0, "volume": 12374663, "typical_volume": 14997532.2, "trend": 27.675444, "fair_value": 16.523344, "relative_strength": 14.057579, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.087435, "energy": 28.444112, "activity_lines": [ 27.730288, 29.050845, 30.216141, 29.551512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.51, "volume": 12632485, "typical_volume": 14887410.55, "trend": 27.899777, "fair_value": 16.592316, "relative_strength": 10.470357, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.822583, "energy": 49.738601, "activity_lines": [ 26.805866, 28.204058, 29.761745, 29.411805 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.23, "volume": 13346501, "typical_volume": 14174286.2, "trend": 28.157777, "fair_value": 16.674587, "relative_strength": 13.789102, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.958656, "energy": 46.514797, "activity_lines": [ 26.692, 27.797997, 29.478538, 29.368594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }