{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc2109e3-1f89-494d-99c9-5ed007009cd4", "symbol": "HRL-F72", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) MSCI Emerging Markets", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.393, "architecture_energy": 68.368, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 29.96, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 59.33, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.218667, 61.666182, 1585.478286, 2652.708043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.21, "trend_reference": 3864.476, "distance_from_trend": -0.984161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4567.88, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.9866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.790158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989388, "excess_performance": -1.018288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.9866, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.2494, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.840684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989388, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.459535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11052, "relative_activity": 0.755946, "balance": 0.459535, "dry_up": 1.204267, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.056615, "annualized_volatility": 6.364451, "from_high_reference": -0.989993, "from_low_reference": 0.05208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3864.476, "fair_value_reference": 4567.88, "structural_low": 58.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.009774, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.002478, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.050059, "worst_return": -0.049389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.047422, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.060532, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.191395, "worst_return": -0.091624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016794, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.125921, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117673, "worst_return": -0.150393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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13602, "typical_volume": 15208.05, "trend": 4226.542333, "fair_value": 4622.367115, "relative_strength": -98.872756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.946584, "energy": 69.364844, "activity_lines": [ 61.294, 380.034182, 2210.607524, 3178.624258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.8, "volume": 20196, "typical_volume": 14807.6, "trend": 4048.169, "fair_value": 4594.936346, "relative_strength": -98.804234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.507956, "energy": 68.647533, "activity_lines": [ 61.3, 168.138364, 1885.015762, 2909.931204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.21, "volume": 11052, "typical_volume": 14620.1, "trend": 3864.476, "fair_value": 4567.88, "relative_strength": -98.790158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.393084, "energy": 68.367559, "activity_lines": [ 61.218667, 61.666182, 1585.478286, 2652.708043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }