{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc2fea36-50b1-456f-93ce-fd3e75adaf1e", "symbol": "KSM-F118", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) Morningstar Wide Moat Focus", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.797, "architecture_energy": 63.056, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.172, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.35, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 503.073333, 492.630909, 12188.99381, 21214.650968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 510.5, "trend_reference": 31953.713333, "distance_from_trend": -0.984024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45905.073077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.868403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98977, "excess_performance": -1.01867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344046, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.921702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.681915, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98977, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747421, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1909, "relative_activity": 0.947653, "balance": 0.747421, "dry_up": 1.106009, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.198207, "annualized_volatility": 6.343545, "from_high_reference": -0.990224, "from_low_reference": 0.114872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31953.713333, "fair_value_reference": 45905.073077, "structural_low": 457.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003401, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.010405, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.087709, "worst_return": -0.989704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041771, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.038411, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.078144, "worst_return": -0.989918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001454, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016007, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.008804, "worst_return": 0.000871, "sufficient": 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490.1, "volume": 1892, "typical_volume": 2041.15, "trend": 35351.693333, "fair_value": 46482.761538, "relative_strength": -98.995114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.632179, "energy": 67.549481, "activity_lines": [ 489.72, 2882.552727, 17140.087619, 25601.390108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 510.1, "volume": 2778, "typical_volume": 2008.45, "trend": 33663.363333, "fair_value": 46193.53141, "relative_strength": -98.897172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.231417, "energy": 66.918818, "activity_lines": [ 497.72, 1286.374545, 14553.23619, 23353.545376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 510.5, "volume": 1909, "typical_volume": 2014.45, "trend": 31953.713333, "fair_value": 45905.073077, "relative_strength": -98.868403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.796945, "energy": 63.056354, "activity_lines": [ 503.073333, 492.630909, 12188.99381, 21214.650968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }