{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc3471ca-a85d-44da-9d43-c285c6d740b5", "symbol": "600463", "name": "Beijing Airport High-Tech Park Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.88, "architecture_energy": 58.529, "architecture_maturity": 79.084, "architecture_confidence": 95.529, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 22.25, "upward_expansion": 10.27, "deceleration": 59.89, "rotation_down": 58.99, "downward_expansion": 83.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.619333, 7.795818, 8.595714, 9.14886 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.84, "trend_reference": 9.871333, "distance_from_trend": -0.205781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.889872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.77344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289211, "excess_performance": -0.246007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107017, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20727, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.348305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289211, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525771, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16891151, "relative_activity": 1.075366, "balance": 0.525771, "dry_up": 1.405453, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103611, "annualized_volatility": 0.373494, "from_high_reference": -0.396459, "from_low_reference": 0.12 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.871333, "fair_value_reference": 9.889872, "structural_low": 7.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.062257, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": 0.066609, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.34555, "worst_return": -0.17345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.18886, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.18555, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.160167, "worst_return": -0.306808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.262411, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.310315, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.560209, "worst_return": -0.289211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09802, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087903, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 7.996, 8.609273, 9.339381, 9.817871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.82, "volume": 30385502, "typical_volume": 15712756.8, "trend": 10.262333, "fair_value": 9.931154, "relative_strength": -24.519534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.13182, "energy": 82.489586, "activity_lines": [ 7.869333, 8.352727, 9.146762, 9.652602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.13, "volume": 23577107, "typical_volume": 15849647.15, "trend": 10.118333, "fair_value": 9.914423, "relative_strength": -31.475257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.965578, "energy": 70.336132, "activity_lines": [ 7.591333, 8.034182, 8.907952, 9.450516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.59, "volume": 17450001, "typical_volume": 15822437.2, "trend": 9.987333, "fair_value": 9.901923, "relative_strength": -26.807673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.412022, "energy": 63.303319, "activity_lines": [ 7.56, 7.867455, 8.732429, 9.287398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.84, "volume": 16891151, "typical_volume": 15707348.3, "trend": 9.871333, "fair_value": 9.889872, "relative_strength": -25.77344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.880354, "energy": 58.529393, "activity_lines": [ 7.619333, 7.795818, 8.595714, 9.14886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }