{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc3fac90-d313-4e8c-94bb-4864c9c7dc17", "symbol": "RAU", "name": "Resouro Strategic Metals Inc.", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.312, "architecture_energy": 22.296, "architecture_maturity": 23.698, "architecture_confidence": 61.769, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.5, "rotation_up": 48.19, "upward_expansion": 63.89, "deceleration": 57.87, "rotation_down": 19.85, "downward_expansion": 14.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.313, 0.307909, 0.31031, 0.309032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.32, "trend_reference": 0.304333, "distance_from_trend": 0.051479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.271239, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.984954, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032258, "excess_performance": -0.031448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051479, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084967, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.10985, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323772, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032258, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.23018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 278584, "relative_activity": 0.462045, "balance": 0.23018, "dry_up": 0.651291, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070913, "annualized_volatility": 0.580688, "from_high_reference": -0.264368, "from_low_reference": 0.777778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.304333, "fair_value_reference": 0.271239, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.065942, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042427, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.306122, "worst_return": 0.052632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.086957, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.109343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086957, "worst_return": 0.086957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.391304, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.36726, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.391304, "worst_return": 0.391304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.347826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264151, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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"energy": 10.640105, "activity_lines": [ 0.300333, 0.302636, 0.307571, 0.305903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.305, "volume": 78210, "typical_volume": 571166.6, "trend": 0.298667, "fair_value": 0.27036, "relative_strength": 13.540338, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.704465, "energy": 14.122252, "activity_lines": [ 0.301, 0.302364, 0.3075, 0.306473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.32, "volume": 1024402, "typical_volume": 616969.4, "trend": 0.301667, "fair_value": 0.270804, "relative_strength": 15.33371, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.707, "energy": 15.572486, "activity_lines": [ 0.307667, 0.305273, 0.308929, 0.307849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.32, "volume": 278584, "typical_volume": 602936.4, "trend": 0.304333, "fair_value": 0.271239, "relative_strength": 10.984954, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.311979, "energy": 22.296123, "activity_lines": [ 0.313, 0.307909, 0.31031, 0.309032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }