{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc4034a3-c6eb-4a8d-8d0c-a0634a6b141f", "symbol": "600470", "name": "Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.267, "architecture_energy": 51.806, "architecture_maturity": 24.158, "architecture_confidence": 84.854, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.46, "rotation_up": 15.99, "upward_expansion": 11.43, "deceleration": 39.81, "rotation_down": 60.64, "downward_expansion": 80.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.519333, 5.694545, 5.889952, 6.183161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.64, "trend_reference": 6.460333, "distance_from_trend": -0.12698, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.523077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.179561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.180233, "excess_performance": -0.137029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12698, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026374, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02117, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202131, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180233, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.95485, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97395074, "relative_activity": 0.665694, "balance": 0.95485, "dry_up": 0.973054, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133524, "annualized_volatility": 0.762086, "from_high_reference": -0.402542, "from_low_reference": 0.15102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.460333, "fair_value_reference": 5.523077, "structural_low": 4.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.009132, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.008962, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.334342, "worst_return": -0.151565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003252, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.04811, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.236145, "worst_return": -0.140787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.054217, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.073198, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.038217, "worst_return": -0.179572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.622575, "energy": 25.502779, "activity_lines": [ 5.996, 5.903636, 6.170571, 6.396172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.15, "volume": 151668371, "typical_volume": 198289325.35, "trend": 6.500333, "fair_value": 5.524872, "relative_strength": -14.75544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.432918, "energy": 36.573102, "activity_lines": [ 5.729333, 5.771636, 6.038048, 6.307161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.41, "volume": 109178434, "typical_volume": 169540085.55, "trend": 6.471667, "fair_value": 5.524103, "relative_strength": -10.609118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.87172, "energy": 38.392321, "activity_lines": [ 5.564, 5.708182, 5.945619, 6.236817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.64, "volume": 97395074, "typical_volume": 146305986.85, "trend": 6.460333, "fair_value": 5.523077, "relative_strength": -9.179561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.267153, "energy": 51.805967, "activity_lines": [ 5.519333, 5.694545, 5.889952, 6.183161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }