{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc4a1773-87fe-4a0d-88f7-d083cc57b262", "symbol": "WC1", "name": "West Cobar Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.61, "architecture_energy": 69.186, "architecture_maturity": 53.732, "architecture_confidence": 81.34, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 10.79, "upward_expansion": 14.11, "deceleration": 41.46, "rotation_down": 75.08, "downward_expansion": 89.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.014833, 0.015727, 0.0173, 0.018292 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.019917, "distance_from_trend": -0.196653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.032124, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.501926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.466833, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304348, "excess_performance": -0.368053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.501926, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01773, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.718754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4390417, "relative_activity": 2.125881, "balance": 0.718754, "dry_up": 1.506646, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132212, "annualized_volatility": 0.570029, "from_high_reference": -0.542857, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.019917, "fair_value_reference": 0.032124, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.290323, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.082701, "regime_survival": 0.935484, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.205276, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.163708, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.307692, "worst_return": -0.364865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.4125, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.399168, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.489362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.473684, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"relative_strength": -31.927726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.938319, "energy": 92.486532, "activity_lines": [ 0.015167, 0.016618, 0.017976, 0.018959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 2722076, "typical_volume": 2154666.9, "trend": 0.020083, "fair_value": 0.032598, "relative_strength": -32.939265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.429751, "energy": 89.915167, "activity_lines": [ 0.014533, 0.015955, 0.017526, 0.018556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 4390417, "typical_volume": 2065222.6, "trend": 0.019917, "fair_value": 0.032124, "relative_strength": -25.466833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.609734, "energy": 69.185603, "activity_lines": [ 0.014833, 0.015727, 0.0173, 0.018292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }