{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc4fdbc5-d9ea-4117-8adf-ba3efe87eca1", "symbol": "2230", "name": "C.T.I. Traffic Industries Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.904, "architecture_energy": 50.457, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.431, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.69, "rotation_up": 27.87, "upward_expansion": 19.54, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 48.99, "downward_expansion": 71.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.256667, 24.09584, 25.440595, 28.167338 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.950001, "trend_reference": 36.418284, "distance_from_trend": -0.314905, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 95.659861, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.73918, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.118786, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.665456, "excess_performance": -1.106828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.314905, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392304, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.73918, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.741188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.665456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.52794, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 851760, "relative_activity": 0.584792, "balance": 0.52794, "dry_up": 0.57331, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09843, "annualized_volatility": 0.846852, "from_high_reference": -0.766583, "from_low_reference": 0.217073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.418284, "fair_value_reference": 95.659861, "structural_low": 20.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.024911, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.046034, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.120861, "worst_return": -0.536649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010488, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033026, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.107407, "worst_return": -0.674731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020478, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01012, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.128319, "worst_return": -0.758216, "sufficient": 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-70.187393, "energy": 67.345177, "activity_lines": [ 22.556667, 23.740344, 25.704897, 29.968306 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.5, "volume": 1090812, "typical_volume": 1502770.8, "trend": 38.612732, "fair_value": 95.92368, "relative_strength": -72.462441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.174482, "energy": 63.494777, "activity_lines": [ 23.696667, 24.049213, 25.633417, 29.048805 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.950001, "volume": 851760, "typical_volume": 1456516.8, "trend": 36.418284, "fair_value": 95.659861, "relative_strength": -74.118786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.904287, "energy": 50.457486, "activity_lines": [ 24.256667, 24.09584, 25.440595, 28.167338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }