{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc5059c8-5069-4f98-8637-81b5b6d1cce0", "symbol": "EXPRS2", "name": "ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.202, "architecture_energy": 87.718, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 21.41, "deceleration": 37.27, "rotation_down": 59.69, "downward_expansion": 97.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.432, 1.452364, 1.657912, 2.899849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.425, "trend_reference": 5.535628, "distance_from_trend": -0.742577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.962794, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.959242, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -89.045168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.907946, "excess_performance": -0.96944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.742577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.480619, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.959242, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.890452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004653, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.907946, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.108273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 478195, "relative_activity": 1.625154, "balance": 0.108273, "dry_up": 0.985937, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177058, "annualized_volatility": 2.21661, "from_high_reference": -0.94466, "from_low_reference": 0.168033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.535628, "fair_value_reference": 34.962794, "structural_low": 1.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.029565, "positive_rate": 0.390244, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.069301, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 1.193487, "worst_return": -0.628778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.260132, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.244004, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.955414, "worst_return": -0.871124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.406384, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.391955, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.541401, "worst_return": -0.904848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 356323, "typical_volume": 261890.55, "trend": 7.587295, "fair_value": 37.866681, "relative_strength": -90.269331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.997104, "energy": 88.672961, "activity_lines": [ 1.478333, 1.549, 2.160033, 4.290958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.43, "volume": 105184, "typical_volume": 264855.55, "trend": 7.082961, "fair_value": 37.049758, "relative_strength": -89.850639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.09876, "energy": 89.834942, "activity_lines": [ 1.458667, 1.510364, 1.970134, 3.893713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.445, "volume": 333307, "typical_volume": 264336.65, "trend": 6.567128, "fair_value": 36.364404, "relative_strength": -89.459245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.310708, "energy": 89.153229, "activity_lines": [ 1.452667, 1.484727, 1.84733, 3.529974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.43, "volume": 243746, "typical_volume": 273849.85, "trend": 6.054795, "fair_value": 35.626364, "relative_strength": -89.265464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.812947, "energy": 89.239699, "activity_lines": [ 1.443333, 1.465545, 1.744168, 3.198546 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.425, "volume": 478195, "typical_volume": 294245.95, "trend": 5.535628, "fair_value": 34.962794, "relative_strength": -89.045168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.202331, "energy": 87.718234, "activity_lines": [ 1.432, 1.452364, 1.657912, 2.899849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }