{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc583560-3516-4458-8301-c1b5cea023df", "symbol": "FIC", "name": "First Capital S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.879, "architecture_energy": 14.889, "architecture_maturity": 58.319, "architecture_confidence": 63.188, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.12, "rotation_up": 27.33, "upward_expansion": 19.38, "deceleration": 42.79, "rotation_down": 25.99, "downward_expansion": 53.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.250001, 17.179091, 17.226894, 17.430257 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.450001, "trend_reference": 17.789098, "distance_from_trend": -0.019062, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.930161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.095406, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.074938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072803, "excess_performance": -0.243694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019062, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038006, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.095406, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039661, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.935318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5433, "relative_activity": 0.402691, "balance": 0.935318, "dry_up": 0.591065, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038351, "annualized_volatility": 0.132668, "from_high_reference": -0.188702, "from_low_reference": 0.067278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.789098, "fair_value_reference": 15.930161, "structural_low": 16.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.008189, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.012651, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.065476, "worst_return": -0.081081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028033, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.015079, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.113772, "worst_return": -0.108696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012853, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.022506, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": -0.042686, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043716, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", 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17.006666, 17.037273, 17.357776, 17.686945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.35, "volume": 23586, "typical_volume": 14041.15, "trend": 18.118678, "fair_value": 15.850066, "relative_strength": -17.176841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.861186, "energy": 30.78731, "activity_lines": [ 17.143333, 17.07, 17.331091, 17.629236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.25, "volume": 8218, "typical_volume": 13929.6, "trend": 18.02153, "fair_value": 15.869649, "relative_strength": -16.122532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.497997, "energy": 22.830247, "activity_lines": [ 17.216666, 17.098182, 17.300053, 17.573192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 13798, "typical_volume": 13859.6, "trend": 17.933585, "fair_value": 15.886764, "relative_strength": -17.119268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.477767, "energy": 21.801615, "activity_lines": [ 17.166667, 17.080909, 17.247006, 17.504061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.200001, "volume": 4449, "typical_volume": 13573.6, "trend": 17.860376, "fair_value": 15.907661, "relative_strength": -16.150881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.334902, "energy": 18.329494, "activity_lines": [ 17.186667, 17.108182, 17.223017, 17.456733 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.450001, "volume": 5433, "typical_volume": 13491.75, "trend": 17.789098, "fair_value": 15.930161, "relative_strength": -17.074938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.879132, "energy": 14.889475, "activity_lines": [ 17.250001, 17.179091, 17.226894, 17.430257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }