{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc585528-3aff-48fc-b319-a5a7d026ea41", "symbol": "CC", "name": "Chemours Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -47.764, "architecture_energy": 67.199, "architecture_maturity": 22.192, "architecture_confidence": 74.584, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.08, "rotation_up": 17.22, "upward_expansion": 22.95, "deceleration": 43.36, "rotation_down": 75.56, "downward_expansion": 66.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.646667, 17.855818, 19.781018, 20.057499 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.75, "trend_reference": 19.746593, "distance_from_trend": -0.202394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.106401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.824123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.132892, "excess_performance": -0.258517, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202394, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175669, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.535428, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132892, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24105342, "relative_activity": 1.82073, "balance": 0.249868, "dry_up": 1.046275, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15366, "annualized_volatility": 0.637807, "from_high_reference": -0.448567, "from_low_reference": 0.521592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.746593, "fair_value_reference": 19.106401, "structural_low": 14.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.096611, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.033944, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.320643, "worst_return": -0.159358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.228708, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.183214, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.542082, "worst_return": 0.130114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096389, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.04645, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.950565, "worst_return": -0.066228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.262199, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.182796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008969, "active": false 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"modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.822163, "energy": 45.459623, "activity_lines": [ 18.608, 19.776727, 21.110132, 20.640113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.22, "volume": 9414944, "typical_volume": 13626845.55, "trend": 19.545382, "fair_value": 19.311173, "relative_strength": -5.58602, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.992328, "energy": 56.056903, "activity_lines": [ 17.891333, 19.162, 20.734475, 20.501343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.61, "volume": 9796496, "typical_volume": 13261348.95, "trend": 19.694196, "fair_value": 19.203156, "relative_strength": -10.193507, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.615079, "energy": 62.298411, "activity_lines": [ 17.274667, 18.543818, 20.29657, 20.311963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.75, "volume": 24105342, "typical_volume": 13239381.45, "trend": 19.746593, "fair_value": 19.106401, "relative_strength": -17.824123, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.764177, "energy": 67.198509, "activity_lines": [ 16.646667, 17.855818, 19.781018, 20.057499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }