{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc5aa1fe-6d48-4f21-96b6-219281e2e168", "symbol": "603528", "name": "DuoLun Technology Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.325, "architecture_energy": 56.755, "architecture_maturity": 92.232, "architecture_confidence": 93.079, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 27.01, "upward_expansion": 9.81, "deceleration": 60.8, "rotation_down": 53.45, "downward_expansion": 83.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.986, 6.041455, 6.590429, 7.107613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.31, "trend_reference": 7.941667, "distance_from_trend": -0.205456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.936266, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.204916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.378363, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.342023, "excess_performance": -0.298819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121173, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.204916, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342023, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60499, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58798712, "relative_activity": 1.314229, "balance": 0.60499, "dry_up": 1.454153, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098866, "annualized_volatility": 0.368392, "from_high_reference": -0.454624, "from_low_reference": 0.172862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.941667, "fair_value_reference": 7.936266, "structural_low": 5.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.014624, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.017394, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.174061, "worst_return": -0.165498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044907, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.022534, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.652597, "worst_return": -0.307317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04685, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.011644, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.585324, "worst_return": -0.172316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -34.716998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.063214, "energy": 73.697644, "activity_lines": [ 5.720667, 6.091818, 6.778429, 7.351871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.16, "volume": 77935215, "typical_volume": 43703179.35, "trend": 8.053667, "fair_value": 7.950981, "relative_strength": -25.711015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.548405, "energy": 64.661773, "activity_lines": [ 5.835333, 6.036364, 6.671429, 7.220108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.31, "volume": 58798712, "typical_volume": 44740073.75, "trend": 7.941667, "fair_value": 7.936266, "relative_strength": -25.378363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.325367, "energy": 56.755148, "activity_lines": [ 5.986, 6.041455, 6.590429, 7.107613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }