{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc5b376d-74e3-434d-b706-7f6d1f37be28", "symbol": "TCH-F77", "name": "Tachlit Indices Mutual Fund Management Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4D) NASDAQ 100", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.718, "architecture_energy": 67.415, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 29.94, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 53.36, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 456.506667, 457.609091, 11592.935714, 19105.687097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 461.8, "trend_reference": 27654.226667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983301, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35584.658974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.796168, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988549, "excess_performance": -1.01745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983301, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336925, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987022, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.162006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987962, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.784438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988549, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.843149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10159, "relative_activity": 0.714587, "balance": 0.843149, "dry_up": 1.12555, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.827831, "annualized_volatility": 6.351334, "from_high_reference": -0.98974, "from_low_reference": 0.055784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27654.226667, "fair_value_reference": 35584.658974, "structural_low": 437.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.016458, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.004572, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.154229, "worst_return": -0.123953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066087, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031462, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.209209, "worst_return": -0.065755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.156534, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.090623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167949, "worst_return": -0.021624, 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"typical_volume": 14216.6, "trend": 27654.226667, "fair_value": 35584.658974, "relative_strength": -98.796168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.717978, "energy": 67.414736, "activity_lines": [ 456.506667, 457.609091, 11592.935714, 19105.687097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }