{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "dc5d1ff6-8bd3-4437-a214-ae0c527822ca",
    "symbol": "WTCH",
    "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF USD Acc",
    "exchange": "AMS",
    "country": "NL",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AEX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 72.597,
    "architecture_energy": 44.505,
    "architecture_maturity": 72.451,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.737,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 29.99,
        "rotation_up": 39.55,
        "upward_expansion": 66.52,
        "deceleration": 94.23,
        "rotation_down": 29.34,
        "downward_expansion": 15.86
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        227.906667,
        227.889999,
        224.126189,
        215.127009
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 237.100006,
    "trend_reference": 204.100998,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.16168,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 162.056089,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.463074,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 8.205216,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.315322,
    "excess_performance": 0.19866,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.16168,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.069968,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.463074,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052325,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.082052,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035622,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.315322,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.904725,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 13987,
      "relative_activity": 0.907319,
      "balance": 1.904725,
      "dry_up": 1.010833,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.042874,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.243463,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002734,
      "from_low_reference": 0.407289
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 204.100998,
      "fair_value_reference": 162.056089,
      "structural_low": 168.479996,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.018437,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": 0.031246,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.103122,
        "worst_return": -0.029904,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.098189,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.070986,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.173012,
        "worst_return": -0.04818,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.20039,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.114081,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.292483,
        "worst_return": -0.018415,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.155218,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.166149,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.440533,
        "worst_return": -0.153394,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.020948,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.120981,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.014291,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.144181,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.18215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.061902,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.082333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.073522,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.029833,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.184395,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.075078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.002027,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047724,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 26475.75,
        "trend": 186.344666,
        "fair_value": 151.405192,
        "relative_strength": 4.826551,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 91.835088,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 26938.65,
        "trend": 189.674332,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 25313.45,
        "trend": 192.184999,
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        "relative_strength": 14.926509,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 23507.55,
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        "relative_strength": 8.569523,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 20102.1,
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        "fair_value": 157.541217,
        "relative_strength": 8.733408,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.66847,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 2100,
        "typical_volume": 18389.35,
        "trend": 197.521999,
        "fair_value": 158.29923,
        "relative_strength": 7.783308,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 231.699997,
        "volume": 17214,
        "typical_volume": 17345.5,
        "trend": 199.018665,
        "fair_value": 159.07282,
        "relative_strength": 9.015836,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.199484,
        "energy": 62.423347,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 222.449997,
        "volume": 12417,
        "typical_volume": 16605.95,
        "trend": 200.210999,
        "fair_value": 159.785063,
        "relative_strength": 3.758636,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.800619,
        "energy": 46.683764,
        "activity_lines": [
          227.229997,
          228.182725,
          219.161379,
          210.055676
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 226.300003,
        "volume": 9754,
        "typical_volume": 15868.6,
        "trend": 201.467665,
        "fair_value": 160.510576,
        "relative_strength": 5.545345,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.874612,
        "energy": 43.708813,
        "activity_lines": [
          226.496665,
          227.862726,
          220.893141,
          211.738837
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 219.399994,
        "volume": 26173,
        "typical_volume": 15293.1,
        "trend": 202.515665,
        "fair_value": 161.214422,
        "relative_strength": 1.411532,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.992808,
        "energy": 32.550019,
        "activity_lines": [
          224.073331,
          226.209998,
          221.759379,
          212.895762
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 237.100006,
        "volume": 13987,
        "typical_volume": 15415.75,
        "trend": 204.100998,
        "fair_value": 162.056089,
        "relative_strength": 8.205216,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.597041,
        "energy": 44.505251,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}