{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc623faa-0a77-414f-8cfc-b848b585ac97", "symbol": "COMH", "name": "Amdi Blg Eql-wght Com ex-Agrc U", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.272, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.492, "architecture_energy": 15.551, "architecture_maturity": 57.571, "architecture_confidence": 53.459, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.12, "rotation_up": 39.79, "upward_expansion": 30.84, "deceleration": 58.95, "rotation_down": 22.76, "downward_expansion": 23.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.009334, 39.516637, 40.381857, 40.304678 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.375, "trend_reference": 39.605834, "distance_from_trend": 0.019421, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.976355, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.393377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.798742, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.159535, "excess_performance": -0.011357, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019421, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074669, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.393377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017987, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203256, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.366772, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24503, "relative_activity": 1.815118, "balance": 3.366772, "dry_up": 1.460139, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030417, "annualized_volatility": 0.189614, "from_high_reference": -0.105065, "from_low_reference": 0.507374 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.605834, "fair_value_reference": 28.976355, "structural_low": 33.785, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.043109, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024465, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.079284, "worst_return": 0.006933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.083003, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083003, "worst_return": 0.083003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.184429, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.057968, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184429, "worst_return": 0.184429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.723653, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.464887, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.723653, "worst_return": 0.723653, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047121, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054477, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02888, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011484, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.444286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028183, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033798, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 25.264999, "volume": 339, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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13.950721, "activity_lines": [ 39.611667, 39.41, 40.430548, 40.240968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.375, "volume": 24503, "typical_volume": 13499.4, "trend": 39.605834, "fair_value": 28.976355, "relative_strength": -1.798742, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.491944, "energy": 15.550996, "activity_lines": [ 40.009334, 39.516637, 40.381857, 40.304678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }