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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 71.263, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.577, "architecture_energy": 56.834, "architecture_maturity": 4.049, "architecture_confidence": 60.818, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.09, "rotation_up": 67.15, "upward_expansion": 81.29, "deceleration": 50.48, "rotation_down": 13.84, "downward_expansion": 14.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 218.858195, 215.82321, 215.210186, 215.03624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 220.440002, "trend_reference": 214.935073, "distance_from_trend": 0.025612, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 227.500706, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.072962, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042751, "excess_performance": -0.07767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042751, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.181818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2600, "relative_activity": 1.64557, "balance": 1.181818, "dry_up": 1.787975, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024373, "annualized_volatility": 0.224969, "from_high_reference": -0.157061, "from_low_reference": 0.087049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 214.935073, "fair_value_reference": 227.500706, 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214.672098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 213.280151, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1225.0, "trend": 215.555725, "fair_value": 229.110704, "relative_strength": -16.62252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.37779, "energy": 33.90525, "activity_lines": [ 211.890757, 213.009688, 214.271604, 214.486269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 209.312149, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1155.0, "trend": 214.835418, "fair_value": 228.713071, "relative_strength": -17.574337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.919624, "energy": 29.645184, "activity_lines": [ 211.24612, 211.971164, 213.747562, 214.083457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 209.808151, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 1185.0, "trend": 214.280966, "fair_value": 228.324494, "relative_strength": -16.587851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.699735, "energy": 28.068535, "activity_lines": [ 210.812674, 211.198966, 213.29489, 213.759118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 217.248154, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 1285.0, "trend": 214.165841, "fair_value": 228.061769, "relative_strength": -13.200944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.126006, "energy": 11.588907, "activity_lines": [ 212.883352, 212.164983, 213.591465, 213.950549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 225.0, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 1465.0, "trend": 214.44596, "fair_value": 227.848735, "relative_strength": -8.992451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.681009, "energy": 38.013223, "activity_lines": [ 217.021435, 214.499551, 214.619741, 214.649527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 220.440002, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 1580.0, "trend": 214.935073, "fair_value": 227.500706, "relative_strength": -13.072962, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.57659, "energy": 56.833664, "activity_lines": [ 218.858195, 215.82321, 215.210186, 215.03624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }