{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc6e45f6-986a-4083-ae81-09dd7d096a9a", "symbol": "BLW", "name": "BlackRock Ltd Duration Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.514, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.025, "architecture_energy": 18.014, "architecture_maturity": 6.091, "architecture_confidence": 60.67, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.98, "rotation_up": 42.44, "upward_expansion": 35.91, "deceleration": 32.23, "rotation_down": 15.38, "downward_expansion": 41.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.598485, 12.506485, 12.439634, 12.478103 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.62, "trend_reference": 12.605665, "distance_from_trend": 0.001137, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.965731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.093132, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03953, "excess_performance": -0.165155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001137, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015722, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010697, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.048877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 583360, "relative_activity": 0.762825, "balance": 2.048877, "dry_up": 1.078398, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021253, "annualized_volatility": 0.116494, "from_high_reference": -0.053582, "from_low_reference": 0.07523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.605665, "fair_value_reference": 11.965731, "structural_low": 11.737025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017828, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.025191, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.02861, "worst_return": -0.025229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046752, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.042204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066134, "worst_return": -0.049518, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.046152, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093814, "worst_return": 0.043364, "sufficient": false }, { 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12.25349, 12.354539, 12.507817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.419216, "volume": 638463, "typical_volume": 663398.7, "trend": 12.67333, "fair_value": 11.877915, "relative_strength": -11.952768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.56209, "energy": 42.519702, "activity_lines": [ 12.239537, 12.268587, 12.346229, 12.490192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.63727, "volume": 981187, "typical_volume": 697051.6, "trend": 12.664672, "fair_value": 11.896456, "relative_strength": -11.250217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.827933, "energy": 13.453909, "activity_lines": [ 12.385998, 12.325145, 12.362678, 12.487866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.7, "volume": 1775027, "typical_volume": 763418.8, "trend": 12.654027, "fair_value": 11.915398, "relative_strength": -9.079131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.981326, "energy": 16.791021, "activity_lines": [ 12.52074, 12.39292, 12.388099, 12.490145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.56, "volume": 492868, "typical_volume": 764144.3, "trend": 12.634192, "fair_value": 11.932138, "relative_strength": -9.232512, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.383478, "energy": 22.872307, "activity_lines": [ 12.568772, 12.433021, 12.402473, 12.484079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.54, "volume": 447503, "typical_volume": 760780.95, "trend": 12.618437, "fair_value": 11.948751, "relative_strength": -9.976601, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.119867, "energy": 21.653998, "activity_lines": [ 12.58225, 12.464334, 12.416792, 12.478002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.62, "volume": 583360, "typical_volume": 764736.0, "trend": 12.605665, "fair_value": 11.965731, "relative_strength": -12.093132, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.025303, "energy": 18.013545, "activity_lines": [ 12.598485, 12.506485, 12.439634, 12.478103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }