{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc704640-472b-4ef3-9d13-626a46673d04", "symbol": "CRM", "name": "Salesforce, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.698, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.981, "architecture_energy": 13.667, "architecture_maturity": 33.471, "architecture_confidence": 42.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.1, "rotation_up": 39.4, "upward_expansion": 21.84, "deceleration": 41.13, "rotation_down": 16.43, "downward_expansion": 53.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3115.151969, 3014.576948, 3029.839499, 3090.307795 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3300.0, "trend_reference": 3212.495466, "distance_from_trend": 0.027239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4636.497727, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288256, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.418815, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007777, "excess_performance": 0.062444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027239, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13886, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288256, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047142, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.197833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007777, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.127696, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1898, "relative_activity": 0.090698, "balance": 3.127696, "dry_up": 2.628568, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076372, "annualized_volatility": 0.411168, "from_high_reference": -0.326375, "from_low_reference": 0.238274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3212.495466, "fair_value_reference": 4636.497727, "structural_low": 2665.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.017718, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010288, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.154034, "worst_return": -0.188799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.084272, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.080841, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.301749, "worst_return": -0.253205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.141135, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.142202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.533978, "worst_return": -0.39158, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023499, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098576, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.191403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068121, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.047097, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.143893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3487.248535, "volume": 2341, "typical_volume": 4911.05, "trend": 3508.569344, "fair_value": 4200.104772, "relative_strength": 4.576946, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", 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"activity_lines": [ 2899.456592, 2919.274394, 2997.692607, 3095.341598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3184.0, "volume": 34326, "typical_volume": 21275.0, "trend": 3258.206615, "fair_value": 4638.025982, "relative_strength": -19.119004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.623445, "energy": 14.41344, "activity_lines": [ 3002.194613, 2956.906684, 3007.595773, 3087.611447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3300.0, "volume": 1898, "typical_volume": 20926.7, "trend": 3212.495466, "fair_value": 4636.497727, "relative_strength": -15.418815, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.980721, "energy": 13.66699, "activity_lines": [ 3115.151969, 3014.576948, 3029.839499, 3090.307795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }