{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc747e46-b063-4e4e-a408-49e79c52d05e", "symbol": "M3B0", "name": "Pyramid AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.135, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.404, "architecture_energy": 64.641, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.17, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 58.54, "rotation_down": 51.14, "downward_expansion": 78.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.387333, 1.390545, 1.406458, 1.623852 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.41, "trend_reference": 2.033571, "distance_from_trend": -0.306638, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.84341, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.633138, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -52.961162, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.585294, "excess_performance": -0.649934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306638, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.633138, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056876, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.529612, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060543, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.585294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.971445, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6392, "relative_activity": 0.199554, "balance": 7.971445, "dry_up": 0.319273, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048554, "annualized_volatility": 0.77736, "from_high_reference": -0.718, "from_low_reference": 0.146341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.033571, "fair_value_reference": 3.84341, "structural_low": 1.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.025021, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.033834, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.270588, "worst_return": -0.486915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.098646, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.097875, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.351111, "worst_return": -0.57302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.195205, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.181111, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.074766, "worst_return": -0.259574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 85.784796, "activity_lines": [ 1.408, 1.414727, 1.548485, 1.900166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.34, "volume": 2354, "typical_volume": 31167.05, "trend": 2.302837, "fair_value": 3.983987, "relative_strength": -55.787757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.187473, "energy": 88.736065, "activity_lines": [ 1.379333, 1.402364, 1.498803, 1.833015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.41, "volume": 18349, "typical_volume": 31731.2, "trend": 2.237037, "fair_value": 3.94341, "relative_strength": -52.368099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.794026, "energy": 85.001703, "activity_lines": [ 1.383333, 1.403091, 1.465217, 1.775412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.4, "volume": 15095, "typical_volume": 32165.7, "trend": 2.170904, "fair_value": 3.907128, "relative_strength": -52.512146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.596066, "energy": 65.10185, "activity_lines": [ 1.386667, 1.401273, 1.439202, 1.72141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.35, "volume": 1071, "typical_volume": 31965.85, "trend": 2.101237, "fair_value": 3.875653, "relative_strength": -54.4507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.476576, "energy": 74.739168, "activity_lines": [ 1.376, 1.39, 1.416273, 1.668448 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.41, "volume": 6392, "typical_volume": 32031.4, "trend": 2.033571, "fair_value": 3.84341, "relative_strength": -52.961162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.404118, "energy": 64.64095, "activity_lines": [ 1.387333, 1.390545, 1.406458, 1.623852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }