{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc85792c-a706-422a-8508-5856f39d1f7d", "symbol": "000632", "name": "Fujian Sanmu Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.613, "architecture_energy": 46.675, "architecture_maturity": 68.247, "architecture_confidence": 85.75, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.32, "rotation_up": 25.15, "upward_expansion": 6.91, "deceleration": 58.36, "rotation_down": 46.0, "downward_expansion": 75.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.234, 3.271455, 3.530619, 3.818989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.34, "trend_reference": 4.237, "distance_from_trend": -0.211706, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.965449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.157725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.500652, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.335984, "excess_performance": -0.343384, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.211706, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.157725, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059229, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066035, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.335984, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60296, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45123337, "relative_activity": 0.515589, "balance": 0.60296, "dry_up": 0.607, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138185, "annualized_volatility": 0.554588, "from_high_reference": -0.618286, "from_low_reference": 0.314961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.237, "fair_value_reference": 3.965449, "structural_low": 2.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.009412, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.029419, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.30566, "worst_return": -0.241895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.091847, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.062503, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.458015, "worst_return": -0.251429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.140805, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.056131, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.343511, "worst_return": -0.011321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175141, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.279503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0489, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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"volume": 43380102, "typical_volume": 91796209.75, "trend": 4.526333, "fair_value": 3.987308, "relative_strength": -32.834314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.229533, "energy": 68.245587, "activity_lines": [ 3.256, 3.439091, 3.742429, 4.054108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.88, "volume": 67590263, "typical_volume": 90009368.65, "trend": 4.414, "fair_value": 3.978013, "relative_strength": -37.73364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.705771, "energy": 59.334371, "activity_lines": [ 3.128667, 3.305455, 3.631286, 3.947892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.39, "volume": 56400299, "typical_volume": 89076741.4, "trend": 4.314, "fair_value": 3.972244, "relative_strength": -25.143312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.134943, "energy": 50.398145, "activity_lines": [ 3.201333, 3.288364, 3.579619, 3.881828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.34, "volume": 45123337, "typical_volume": 87518108.1, "trend": 4.237, "fair_value": 3.965449, "relative_strength": -29.500652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.613059, "energy": 46.674563, "activity_lines": [ 3.234, 3.271455, 3.530619, 3.818989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }