{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc873497-5261-457f-a5c2-84bbb17f4a11", "symbol": "JKON", "name": "PT Jaya Konstruksi Manggala Pratama Tbk", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 70.945, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.76, "architecture_energy": 75.61, "architecture_maturity": 20.98, "architecture_confidence": 77.087, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.11, "rotation_up": 72.32, "upward_expansion": 62.19, "deceleration": 26.59, "rotation_down": 18.69, "downward_expansion": 27.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.533333, 77.254545, 73.250391, 72.791751 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 87.0, "trend_reference": 73.278607, "distance_from_trend": 0.18725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 81.996934, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061015, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.52708, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074074, "excess_performance": 0.285163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.18725, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.244481, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.255271, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176906, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074074, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.305528, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90482200, "relative_activity": 0.849473, "balance": 7.305528, "dry_up": 3.636938, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071328, "annualized_volatility": 0.507699, "from_high_reference": -0.201835, "from_low_reference": 0.423443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.278607, "fair_value_reference": 81.996934, "structural_low": 61.119405, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.220779, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.140573, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.512605, "worst_return": -0.117021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.177617, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.139142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277311, "worst_return": 0.077922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.143239, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168831, "worst_return": 0.117647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.0, "volume": 1302176200, "typical_volume": 105942940.0, "trend": 73.445274, "fair_value": 82.177204, "relative_strength": 32.727624, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.807096, "energy": 35.441514, "activity_lines": [ 74.8, 71.110176, 70.17285, 71.036303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 87.0, "volume": 147861300, "typical_volume": 102652115.0, "trend": 73.345274, "fair_value": 82.081233, "relative_strength": 28.065908, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.735498, "energy": 62.395661, "activity_lines": [ 79.866667, 74.4, 71.747335, 71.910801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 87.0, "volume": 90482200, "typical_volume": 106515630.0, "trend": 73.278607, "fair_value": 81.996934, "relative_strength": 25.52708, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.760029, "energy": 75.609813, "activity_lines": [ 83.533333, 77.254545, 73.250391, 72.791751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }