{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc8d6ef3-8072-4c61-b2f1-bccaa2757465", "symbol": "300969", "name": "NINGBO HENGSHUAI Co., LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.507, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.356, "architecture_energy": 72.881, "architecture_maturity": 18.4, "architecture_confidence": 80.879, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.47, "rotation_up": 10.83, "upward_expansion": 18.59, "deceleration": 34.33, "rotation_down": 71.5, "downward_expansion": 87.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.076001, 85.543273, 92.612239, 93.878185 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 76.330002, "trend_reference": 96.012701, "distance_from_trend": -0.205001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.453536, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.352085, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.283515, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220883, "excess_performance": -0.228283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205001, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.352085, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.628997, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220883, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11550411, "relative_activity": 0.803443, "balance": 0.940952, "dry_up": 0.949733, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191137, "annualized_volatility": 0.699195, "from_high_reference": -0.382185, "from_low_reference": 0.365489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.012701, "fair_value_reference": 56.453536, "structural_low": 63.990002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.091604, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.045038, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.437367, "worst_return": -0.194796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.140348, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.068455, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.529735, "worst_return": -0.160158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.262074, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.232985, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.549225, "worst_return": 0.012167, "sufficient": false 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71.529999, "volume": 14870120, "typical_volume": 14524714.35, "trend": 96.834008, "fair_value": 56.013698, "relative_strength": -16.466973, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.208177, "energy": 43.815965, "activity_lines": [ 87.126667, 94.121799, 96.766664, 96.838093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.029999, "volume": 13234663, "typical_volume": 14422067.8, "trend": 96.404569, "fair_value": 56.207025, "relative_strength": -15.883955, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.942433, "energy": 70.650301, "activity_lines": [ 79.968667, 88.904545, 94.375233, 95.173319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.330002, "volume": 11550411, "typical_volume": 14376149.65, "trend": 96.012701, "fair_value": 56.453536, "relative_strength": -14.283515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.355546, "energy": 72.880515, "activity_lines": [ 76.076001, 85.543273, 92.612239, 93.878185 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }