{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc902abc-ea97-40f7-98c2-416cf99620c7", "symbol": "SMMT", "name": "Summit Therapeutics PLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.783, "architecture_energy": 58.98, "architecture_maturity": 25.2, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.71, "rotation_up": 18.25, "upward_expansion": 13.37, "deceleration": 38.59, "rotation_down": 54.74, "downward_expansion": 84.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.715333, 14.025636, 15.221667, 15.817312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.96, "trend_reference": 16.2325, "distance_from_trend": -0.139997, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.368494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.394844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.068712, "excess_performance": -0.256166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139997, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071801, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02843, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.387678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.323948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068712, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.387223, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15217782, "relative_activity": 0.674454, "balance": 0.387223, "dry_up": 0.816744, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145687, "annualized_volatility": 0.78233, "from_high_reference": -0.535441, "from_low_reference": 0.139592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.2325, "fair_value_reference": 14.368494, "structural_low": 12.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.025979, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.001171, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.621534, "worst_return": -0.479263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.231884, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.123408, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.273885, "worst_return": -0.598837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.227991, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.215104, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.178344, "worst_return": -0.69186, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.373031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140651, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.449444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040266, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 15.25, "volume": 14587339, "typical_volume": 21087741.7, "trend": 16.856167, "fair_value": 14.069327, "relative_strength": -31.848351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.783499, "energy": 34.990214, "activity_lines": [ 14.764667, 15.079273, 16.417667, 16.59957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.81, "volume": 15326354, "typical_volume": 21357299.75, "trend": 16.7225, "fair_value": 14.145032, "relative_strength": -34.502626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.851985, "energy": 34.252233, "activity_lines": [ 14.538667, 14.748, 16.120405, 16.403043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.66, "volume": 22325101, "typical_volume": 21921389.6, "trend": 16.573167, "fair_value": 14.219006, "relative_strength": -32.849556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.598413, "energy": 35.937041, "activity_lines": [ 14.276, 14.467091, 15.822095, 16.205462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.02, "volume": 20843951, "typical_volume": 22369663.9, "trend": 16.423167, "fair_value": 14.290032, "relative_strength": -35.080303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.436429, "energy": 57.955193, "activity_lines": [ 13.806, 14.128182, 15.469738, 15.976226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.96, "volume": 15217782, "typical_volume": 22563114.9, "trend": 16.2325, "fair_value": 14.368494, "relative_strength": -32.394844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.782975, "energy": 58.980424, "activity_lines": [ 13.715333, 14.025636, 15.221667, 15.817312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }