{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc94f685-65f8-4f32-8e4c-7985536f2af3", "symbol": "MEQ", "name": "Mainstreet Equity Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.591, "architecture_energy": 17.413, "architecture_maturity": 25.318, "architecture_confidence": 64.679, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.31, "rotation_up": 33.58, "upward_expansion": 29.02, "deceleration": 42.66, "rotation_down": 28.36, "downward_expansion": 46.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 173.456076, 173.098037, 172.725, 174.028041 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 166.440002, "trend_reference": 175.395393, "distance_from_trend": -0.051058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 178.34765, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.530846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030321, "excess_performance": -0.150742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020212, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066766, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.659109, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49600, "relative_activity": 1.630774, "balance": 0.659109, "dry_up": 1.505836, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041939, "annualized_volatility": 0.180577, "from_high_reference": -0.194273, "from_low_reference": 0.025635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.395393, "fair_value_reference": 178.34765, "structural_low": 162.279999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.012821, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.03534, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.070066, "worst_return": -0.102636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026626, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.062071, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.097895, "worst_return": -0.121839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01666, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.102166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.413125, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -17.914331, "energy": 16.826557, "activity_lines": [ 173.827835, 171.435428, 172.93291, 174.433487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.720001, "volume": 46300, "typical_volume": 29360.0, "trend": 175.973669, "fair_value": 177.89382, "relative_strength": -11.85106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.16057, "energy": 18.29835, "activity_lines": [ 175.576579, 172.882843, 173.211957, 174.5408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 177.380005, "volume": 30500, "typical_volume": 29105.0, "trend": 175.794096, "fair_value": 178.154744, "relative_strength": -11.072185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.648621, "energy": 22.478614, "activity_lines": [ 176.572238, 174.092076, 173.488141, 174.631531 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 166.440002, "volume": 49600, "typical_volume": 30415.0, "trend": 175.395393, "fair_value": 178.34765, "relative_strength": -18.530846, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.591307, "energy": 17.412793, "activity_lines": [ 173.456076, 173.098037, 172.725, 174.028041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }