{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc95ec9f-ab86-4ad4-8f31-bafab5818390", "symbol": "300554", "name": "NanJing Sanchao Advanced Materials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.517, "architecture_energy": 77.878, "architecture_maturity": 16.128, "architecture_confidence": 81.783, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.79, "rotation_up": 8.09, "upward_expansion": 17.64, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 76.18, "downward_expansion": 90.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.682, 22.127818, 24.117714, 24.369333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.93, "trend_reference": 24.67, "distance_from_trend": -0.151601, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.105182, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094143, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.928532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149878, "excess_performance": -0.157278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151601, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001461, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094143, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179285, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097571, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.645901, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18427470, "relative_activity": 0.846238, "balance": 0.645901, "dry_up": 1.159486, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154728, "annualized_volatility": 0.57269, "from_high_reference": -0.348787, "from_low_reference": 0.335673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.67, "fair_value_reference": 23.105182, "structural_low": 15.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.078307, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.019751, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.892136, "worst_return": -0.021603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.270355, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.180029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.152778, "worst_return": -0.002168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.359603, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.093263, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.957193, "worst_return": -0.119827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 23.139999, "volume": 31283596, "typical_volume": 21623451.9, "trend": 25.233, "fair_value": 23.141291, "relative_strength": -16.638191, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.794203, "energy": 11.200166, "activity_lines": [ 26.330667, 27.295636, 26.369286, 25.872387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.65, "volume": 29344011, "typical_volume": 22163605.95, "trend": 25.066667, "fair_value": 23.127829, "relative_strength": -25.535979, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.334854, "energy": 38.389603, "activity_lines": [ 23.404667, 25.677636, 25.70181, 25.447678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.139999, "volume": 29961514, "typical_volume": 22089033.7, "trend": 24.902333, "fair_value": 23.112694, "relative_strength": -27.271781, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.555189, "energy": 50.481598, "activity_lines": [ 20.973333, 24.118545, 25.023524, 25.000796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.93, "volume": 23261652, "typical_volume": 22036619.85, "trend": 24.745334, "fair_value": 23.098026, "relative_strength": -22.379933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.594731, "energy": 80.165871, "activity_lines": [ 19.713333, 22.862363, 24.459571, 24.615484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.93, "volume": 18427470, "typical_volume": 21775740.85, "trend": 24.67, "fair_value": 23.105182, "relative_strength": -17.928532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.516852, "energy": 77.878181, "activity_lines": [ 19.682, 22.127818, 24.117714, 24.369333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }