{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc992b05-7b61-4d3d-b169-5dc589f51c76", "symbol": "5WV", "name": "AsiaPhos Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.97, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.551, "architecture_energy": 8.329, "architecture_maturity": 20.64, "architecture_confidence": 74.271, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.26, "rotation_up": 28.7, "upward_expansion": 59.33, "deceleration": 81.5, "rotation_down": 29.05, "downward_expansion": 18.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.008733, 0.008964, 0.008776, 0.008637 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.008, "trend_reference": 0.008533, "distance_from_trend": -0.0625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1015, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.835634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.154835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032092, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.401648, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 512400, "relative_activity": 0.186352, "balance": 2.401648, "dry_up": 0.166295, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192308, "annualized_volatility": 0.858481, "from_high_reference": -0.555556, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008533, "fair_value_reference": 0.007263, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.092528, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.129224, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 1.555556, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.283693, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.533333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.097436, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.087637, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.01, "volume": 7592000, "typical_volume": 20202130.0, "trend": 0.011967, "fair_value": 0.014699, "relative_strength": -35.626586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.401929, "energy": 57.217516, "activity_lines": [ 0.01, 0.010236, 0.011329, 0.011525 ] }, 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0.008581, 0.008523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.008, "volume": 48700, "typical_volume": 3025545.0, "trend": 0.0085, "fair_value": 0.007301, "relative_strength": -20.493181, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.190692, "energy": 29.283698, "activity_lines": [ 0.009133, 0.008782, 0.008543, 0.008488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.009, "volume": 168700, "typical_volume": 2973730.0, "trend": 0.0085, "fair_value": 0.007288, "relative_strength": -14.596074, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.713378, "energy": 24.109657, "activity_lines": [ 0.009067, 0.008873, 0.0086, 0.00852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.01, "volume": 405300, "typical_volume": 2931755.0, "trend": 0.008533, "fair_value": 0.007288, "relative_strength": -6.378951, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.793695, "energy": 30.540599, "activity_lines": [ 0.009267, 0.009127, 0.008748, 0.008617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2823055.0, "trend": 0.0086, "fair_value": 0.007288, "relative_strength": -8.048733, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.218854, "energy": 29.812873, "activity_lines": [ 0.009533, 0.009345, 0.00889, 0.008712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.008, "volume": 911300, "typical_volume": 2804195.0, "trend": 0.008567, "fair_value": 0.007276, "relative_strength": -26.94717, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.824233, "energy": 15.575685, "activity_lines": [ 0.009067, 0.009164, 0.008833, 0.008673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.008, "volume": 512400, "typical_volume": 2749635.0, "trend": 0.008533, "fair_value": 0.007263, "relative_strength": -27.835634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.551132, "energy": 8.328991, "activity_lines": [ 0.008733, 0.008964, 0.008776, 0.008637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }