{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dc9f713d-0f44-4a27-8f00-d200fc9796fc", "symbol": "BBDC3", "name": "Banco Bradesco S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 69.538, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.074, "architecture_energy": 19.94, "architecture_maturity": 46.552, "architecture_confidence": 67.381, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.55, "rotation_up": 26.83, "upward_expansion": 19.49, "deceleration": 42.65, "rotation_down": 29.74, "downward_expansion": 53.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.735739, 15.679767, 15.730057, 15.981258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.15, "trend_reference": 16.357384, "distance_from_trend": -0.073813, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.340036, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.174146, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132842, "excess_performance": -0.075793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132842, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.83693, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30768496, "relative_activity": 1.128453, "balance": 0.83693, "dry_up": 1.186046, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050389, "annualized_volatility": 0.276115, "from_high_reference": -0.186297, "from_low_reference": 0.209545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.357384, "fair_value_reference": 12.340036, "structural_low": 14.803492, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.035813, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.018881, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.181047, "worst_return": -0.069639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.109823, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.010257, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.235306, "worst_return": -0.063823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063467, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.036975, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.404351, "worst_return": -0.056982, 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16.295655, "fair_value": 12.223349, "relative_strength": -1.54671, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.882568, "energy": 19.704251, "activity_lines": [ 15.680356, 15.466658, 15.831795, 16.126197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.923006, "volume": 41578300, "typical_volume": 27946505.0, "trend": 16.320344, "fair_value": 12.25007, "relative_strength": -2.325911, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.100748, "energy": 23.980727, "activity_lines": [ 15.833234, 15.553998, 15.811901, 16.102155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.072847, "volume": 16256100, "typical_volume": 26742495.0, "trend": 16.350028, "fair_value": 12.279497, "relative_strength": -1.565648, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.634108, "energy": 26.046165, "activity_lines": [ 15.986228, 15.672056, 15.816265, 16.086187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.944769, "volume": 40752406, "typical_volume": 27313915.3, "trend": 16.371154, "fair_value": 12.311914, "relative_strength": -4.425306, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.327006, "energy": 23.183314, "activity_lines": [ 16.014517, 15.753246, 15.810584, 16.060042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.15, "volume": 30768496, "typical_volume": 27266085.1, "trend": 16.357384, "fair_value": 12.340036, "relative_strength": -6.174146, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.074133, "energy": 19.939548, "activity_lines": [ 15.735739, 15.679767, 15.730057, 15.981258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }