{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dcb34703-e608-41c2-b9e7-e3dc74e735c3", "symbol": "CCEF", "name": "CALAMOS ETF TRUST CEF INCOME & ARBITRAGE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.569, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.728, "architecture_energy": 37.664, "architecture_maturity": 46.477, "architecture_confidence": 54.938, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.24, "rotation_up": 44.39, "upward_expansion": 75.43, "deceleration": 67.28, "rotation_down": 25.28, "downward_expansion": 4.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.413533, 29.373212, 29.231679, 29.019541 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.64, "trend_reference": 28.828168, "distance_from_trend": 0.028161, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.614867, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.274464, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027352, "excess_performance": -0.098273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028161, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020771, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004469, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.196668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19770, "relative_activity": 1.193253, "balance": 1.196668, "dry_up": 1.138615, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016354, "annualized_volatility": 0.090954, "from_high_reference": -0.018562, "from_low_reference": 0.120023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.828168, "fair_value_reference": 25.614867, "structural_low": 26.989125, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008689, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.002584, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.029999, "worst_return": -0.024389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034864, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029224, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.04337, "worst_return": 0.009497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.051598, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.031305, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.079746, "worst_return": 0.023451, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.214338, "energy": 32.819086, "activity_lines": [ 29.315293, 29.308525, 29.156673, 28.964175 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.64, "volume": 19770, "typical_volume": 16568.15, "trend": 28.828168, "fair_value": 25.614867, "relative_strength": -6.274464, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.728074, "energy": 37.663951, "activity_lines": [ 29.413533, 29.373212, 29.231679, 29.019541 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }