{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dcc5af54-633a-440d-9273-44cd69f1750d", "symbol": "CLW", "name": "Clearwater Paper Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 70.778, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.952, "architecture_energy": 89.244, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.392, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.27, "rotation_up": 78.39, "upward_expansion": 90.72, "deceleration": 47.52, "rotation_down": 8.47, "downward_expansion": 19.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.926, 18.391091, 16.951048, 16.300473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.31, "trend_reference": 16.030667, "distance_from_trend": 0.454088, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.560449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183836, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.310414, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.310287, "excess_performance": 0.184662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.454088, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01376, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183836, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.358134, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.183104, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.59075, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.310287, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.280294, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1129040, "relative_activity": 1.148297, "balance": 2.280294, "dry_up": 1.270367, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086576, "annualized_volatility": 0.601755, "from_high_reference": -0.011869, "from_low_reference": 0.987212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.030667, "fair_value_reference": 28.560449, "structural_low": 11.73, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000697, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02916, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.141635, "worst_return": -0.037524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.095547, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047992, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214813, "worst_return": -0.250782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.091875, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.143155, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128198, "worst_return": -0.368183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083362, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03191, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.307381, "active": false 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16.014333, "fair_value": 29.033974, "relative_strength": -21.491864, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.197024, "energy": 41.437951, "activity_lines": [ 16.528, 15.982727, 15.259429, 15.437742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.8, "volume": 532870, "typical_volume": 989096.25, "trend": 15.944333, "fair_value": 28.931282, "relative_strength": -21.605235, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.738822, "energy": 18.596461, "activity_lines": [ 16.289333, 16.07, 15.348619, 15.423914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.98, "volume": 808303, "typical_volume": 943244.65, "trend": 15.858667, "fair_value": 28.825897, "relative_strength": -18.074035, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.988611, "energy": 10.870192, "activity_lines": [ 16.083333, 16.144909, 15.452429, 15.426215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.82, "volume": 1099141, "typical_volume": 958349.3, "trend": 15.819667, "fair_value": 28.7275, "relative_strength": -11.562068, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.893428, "energy": 13.129843, "activity_lines": [ 16.270667, 16.330545, 15.631524, 15.488237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.03, "volume": 1959767, "typical_volume": 991910.85, "trend": 15.930667, "fair_value": 28.633269, "relative_strength": 10.035092, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.717148, "energy": 55.047881, "activity_lines": [ 17.859333, 17.216727, 16.201571, 15.824387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.31, "volume": 1129040, "typical_volume": 983229.75, "trend": 16.030667, "fair_value": 28.560449, "relative_strength": 18.310414, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.951891, "energy": 89.244058, "activity_lines": [ 19.926, 18.391091, 16.951048, 16.300473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }